With Week 10 now upon us, we’re officially entering the second half of the NFL season. The defending champions are just 5-4 and are working to stay afloat in the absence of their starting quarterback, who for the second straight week won’t suit up on Sunday due to injury. However, the Seahawks are still a very good football team and should have the upper hand against the Raiders, who send No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza out for his first career start under center.
Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Seahawks vs. Raiders in NFL Week 10.
Seahawks vs. Raiders prediction, preview
Seattle picked up a much-needed win last week to get back above .500, moving to 5-4 on the campaign behind the strength of the defense. The Seahawks allowed just three points to the Cardinals, and they’re now conceding just 18.0 PPG, fourth fewest. This defense has been the key to their success for most of the campaign and should be the difference-maker this week against a rookie quarterback making his first career start. Granted, Fernando Mendoza isn’t your typical rookie since he won the Heisman Trophy last season and was the No. 1 pick, but it’s still tough to go up against a unit that ranks fifth in EPA/play and fourth in EPA/dropback allowed in your first extended action.
The Seahawks’ offense does raise some questions, though. They mustered just 17 points with Drew Lock under center for the injured Sam Darnold last week, and the backup logged back-to-back limited practice sessions to start this week. While he didn’t carry a game status at the time this article was written, he seems likely to start if available in Week 10 since head coach Mike Macdonald said the starter won’t return just yet. Seattle will also be without star offensive lineman Quenton Nelson, per the team’s website, but it seems encouraging that tackle Charles Cross did get in a limited session on Thursday. That could be a little better for the run game, which will need to perform at its best this week behind Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price – with the former running for 77 yards in his second game back from his ACL tear recovery. The rushing attack should prove crucial with Lock managing injuries to an oblique and his throwing elbow, which may limit his downfield passing. He should still be able to get the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but the superstar wideout will need to create more for himself after the catch if his downfield threat is limited by the quarterback’s injuries. Even still, this offense averages 22.4 PPG and is just 23rd in EPA/play, so the outlook for this unit isn’t particularly bullish.
The Raiders lost by 21 points to the 49ers last week, which now has them 4-5 on the campaign. Hope isn’t lost for a potential playoff appearance, but the franchise’s decision to trade away veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins – who had played quite well overall this season – for a third-round pick does show how they feel about their chances to really contend. Now, their No. 1 selection gets a chance to show what he’s made of at the NFL level and begin proving he can be the franchise quarterback who was promised. Mendoza has thrown just eight passes as a pro in relief, and as mentioned earlier, this is about as tough of a matchup as it gets for his debut. The good news is that the offense has looked solid this season with 26.4 PPG, and throwing to Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty provides a couple of standout pass-catching weapons for the rookie. Bowers has been incredible in particular with 658 receiving yards and six touchdowns in seven games, but the outlook for the other skill-position weapons like Tre Tucker is more uncertain with a new gunslinger under center.
Las Vegas’ defense, on the other hand, remains a mess. The unit ranks dead last in scoring allowed, giving up 29.8 PPG and also falling last in EPA/play allowed. The Raiders are 30th in EPA/dropback allowed but are also 27th in EPA/rush allowed, so there are multiple avenues for the opposing offense to attack.
Seahawks vs. Raiders pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Seahawks were a -6.5 favorite on the road with -305 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Raiders were a +245 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 40.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This is a game that certainly favors Seattle for a reason. The offense probably won’t be great with Lock likely starting again and playing through the elbow injury, but he and the run game should be able to do enough to put a couple of touchdowns on the board against the NFL’s worst defense. Ultimately, that could be enough to get the job done against a rookie quarterback making his first career start against one of the most formidable defenses in the league. There are a few injuries to keep an eye on since four linebackers logged limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday while a pair of nose tackles and defensive tackle Leonard Williams all were DNPs on those days – the Seahawks could find themselves a bit shorthanded depending on how those statuses wind up shaking out.
However, this is a well-coached Seattle unit that ranks in the league’s top half when it comes to pressure rate and time to throw allowed, also sitting second in EPA allowed with a clean pocket. Mendoza should feel the walls closing in and is likely to face an uphill battle against one of the best secondaries in the sport, so it’s easy to see a world in which this Las Vegas offense struggles to move the ball on Sunday. It’s tough to trust the rookie, so taking the under on the team total for the Raiders looks like one of the best ways to play this game.
