Texas Longhorns at LSU Tigers Prediction and Pick for Saturday 11/14/26

Texas is off a late surge in a strange game at Missouri to pick up a big road win. On the flip side, LSU had a complete letdown in a massive home game against Alabama last week. Texas is priced as an underdog for the first time this season, with DraftKings listing the Longhorns +4 with a total of 45.5 at Death Valley. Let’s breakdown a prediction and pick on the game.

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Texas vs. LSU prediction

I trusted LSU last week and the Tigers completely botched their opportunity to knock off Alabama. LSU out-gained Bama by nearly 200 yards, but got blown out on the scoreboard. Several drives stalled in Bama territory, leaving the Tigers with nothing to show for it. The Tide consistently capitalized. Not Lane Kiffin’s best work.

I don’t completely trust this LSU team. It’s very inconsistent, but also very talented. Much like the Texas team coming to Baton Rouge on Saturday night. That said, I anticipate LSU to clean up some mistakes and be focused on capitalizing against the Longhorns. This should be a terrific home field advantage for LSU, and a tough environment for Texas.

Texas has only played two road games this season, and both of them were dicey. It squeaked by Tennessee by three points in September, failing to cover the spread. The Longhorns played their second road game of the season last week against Missouri, and the 14-point win is misleading.

Mizzou led 20-13 in the second half, then a ton of flukey plays ensued, and a ton of luck went Texas’ way. Arch Manning had what appeared to be a drive ending incompletion, but it was called a fumble that the Longhorns picked up for a first down. Missouri was driving to tie the game, but had a ball bounce away from a receiver for a turnover. Per Pick Six Previews, there were five video reviews in the game, all of which went in Texas’ favor.

The Longhorns are due to come up short in one of these road games, and this spot has all the makings. A night game against LSU is by far the toughest road test yet. I expect Manning and Texas to get a bit rattled here, and forced into some mistakes. The Tigers should be sharp off the embarrassing loss, looking to clean up their mistakes and somehow finish the season 9-3 with an outside chance to sneak into the CFP.

Texas vs. LSU best bet

Personally, I bet some juiced LSU -3 and -3.5 earlier in the week and gave that out in my best bets article. The most I’d be willing to lay is -4. You could also look to back the Tiger on a halftime/fulltime to lead at half and win the game, or pair them with a big favorite in a two-leg moneyline parlay if laying -4 feels too much.

CFB Best Bet: LSU -4 (-108)

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