Friday the 13th seemed intent on working through the whole catalogue of American calamity: a Microsoft outage, planes grounded across the country, a rocket booster exploding over the Gulf, a tanker striking a New Orleans riverboat. College football got caught up in the strangeness, too. Ole Miss couldn’t get to Oklahoma, Baylor had to wait until Saturday morning to travel to BYU, and the schedule needed some mending.
After a day like that, I could use a long Saturday with the games, and a few hours watching Jadan Baugh run the football would suit me just fine.
Below is my full betting slip for college football today, with some notes on what I’d risk, some quick analyses—I have full previews of most all games listed publishing throughout the day for more in-depth breakdowns and matchup analysis.
Follow my handle @dansby_edits.
Dan Johnson’s full Week 11 Saturday College Football betslip
Noon
Duke at Miami
Best bet: Duke +14 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Darian Mensah showed he could move Miami’s offense without injured receiver Malachi Toney, finding Cooper Barkate 10 times and tight end Elija Lofton for 113 yards at Notre Dame. Duke still has the defense and quarterback to contest two touchdowns. Walker Eget has thrown only three interceptions in 246 attempts, and Miami ranks outside the top 80 in passing success rate allowed. Running back Nate Sheppard just demolished NC State for 217 yards; Miami’s front presents a much tougher assignment, so Eget must protect the ball and sustain possessions when the first-down runs stall. Duke ranks among the top 25 nationally in defensive EPA per play and points allowed per scoring opportunity. Mensah should win this duel, but I’ll take the full fourteen against a Blue Devils defense capable of demanding longer drives.
Projected score: Miami 31, Duke 24.
Northwestern at Ohio State
Best bet: Under 44.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Nicco Marchiol completed 24 of 32 passes against Iowa, yet Northwestern squeezed just 181 yards from those throws and waited until the final two minutes for its only touchdown. With Aidan Chiles out, Marchiol needs considerably more from those completions against an Ohio State defense allowing -0.09 EPA per rush. The Wildcats may struggle to reach manageable passing downs in the first place. Ohio State has a replacement quarterback of its own, though Luke Fahey’s 360 yards against Oregon warn us against assuming Julian Sayin’s absence ruins the offense. Northwestern has limited opponents to 2.94 points per possession reaching its 40-yard line. Fahey can move the Buckeyes and still encounter enough resistance near the end zone to leave this below the number.
Projected score: Ohio State 27, Northwestern 13.
12:30 p.m.
Georgia Tech at Clemson
Best bet: Georgia Tech +15.5 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Boston College battered Georgia Tech for 399 rushing yards, and Louisville followed with 251. Jarvis Green, who opened Clemson’s Syracuse win with a 53-yard run, has a chance to punish the Yellow Jackets again with leading rusher Gideon Davidson listed out Friday. Clemson’s offense still has to finish: Tait Reynolds has thrown three touchdowns in 240 attempts, and the Tigers have succeeded on just 36.2% of their plays. They needed four field goals and Jahiem Lawson’s defensive touchdown to win 18-13 at Syracuse. Tech has held opponents to touchdowns on 52.3% of red-zone trips, but quarterback Alberto Mendoza must produce against a defense generating havoc on 19.4% of plays. Justice Haynes’ 5.1 YPC offers an early-down answer. With tight end Kevin Roche Jr. out and injuries thinning the line, I’m taking the points rather than predicting an upset.
Projected score: Clemson 27, Georgia Tech 16.
12:45 p.m.
Alabama at Vanderbilt
Best bet: Under 47.5 (-102) | Stake: 1u
Austin Mack is expected to make his first career start while Keelon Russell rests an injured ankle; Russell remained probable Friday and is expected to be available. Texas A&M and LSU held Alabama to 153 rushing yards on 55 carries combined, and the Tide must replace injured tight end Josh Ford. Vanderbilt’s revamped defense produced seven tackles for loss and three sacks against Mississippi State, though edge rusher Edwin Kolenge is out. At the other end, Jared Curtis faces an Alabama front allowing -0.06 opponent-adjusted EPA per rush, third nationally. Vanderbilt’s backs needed 38 carries for 139 yards last week. Curtis can reach Junior Sherrill, but Alabama’s 30 touchdowns on 37 red-zone trips remain the obvious danger to this under, particularly if Curtis adds to his eight interceptions. I expect enough difficult possessions from both offenses to stay beneath 47.5.
Projected score: Alabama 27, Vanderbilt 14.
3 p.m.
Tennessee at Texas A&M
Best bet: Tennessee -1.5 (+102) | Stake: 1u
DeSean Bishop’s fourth quarters ought to terrify a defense that has already spent three periods chasing him. Tennessee’s senior has piled up 369 rushing yards and six touchdowns in the final period; the Volunteers have rushed for 610 fourth-quarter yards as a team. Texas A&M has made touchdowns unusually difficult to finish, allowing scores on only 13 of 21 red-zone trips, and guard Nic Moore’s absence complicates Tennessee’s blocking. George MacIntyre has handled the primary quarterback work, while Faizon Brandon returned to a situational role against Kentucky. The Aggies need Marcel Reed to protect possessions against a defense generating havoc on 22.4% of snaps; he has thrown eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. Bishop and linebacker Arion Carter give Tennessee the sturdier answers when this gets ugly.
Projected score: Tennessee 24, Texas A&M 17.
3:30 p.m.
USC at Indiana
Best bet: USC +9.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u
Indiana enters with a quarterback decision and two substantial absences beside him: leading rusher Turbo Richard and right guard Joe Brunner are out. Curt Cignetti has kept his choice between Josh Hoover and Grant Wilson close; Hoover’s recent injury complicates the forecast even if he’s available. USC can force either quarterback to sustain an offense without its customary rushing personnel. Jayden Maiava’s protection has surrendered sacks on just 3.7% of dropbacks, an essential foothold against Indiana’s 10.5% defensive sack rate. Through the air, the Trojans rank third nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per pass. Indiana can smother the run, but Maiava has a credible way to earn first downs against a defense that will make him work for every one. Catching more than a touchdown, I’ll back USC’s passing game.
Projected score: Indiana 27, USC 23.
Missouri at Georgia
Best bet: Georgia -16.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u
Missouri can protect Austin Simmons and still spend an awfully long afternoon punting. The Tigers rank eighth nationally in sack rate allowed, yet their offensive success rate sits 104th. Georgia’s early-down defense should make Jamal Roberts fight for manageable distances, with linebackers Chris Cole and Raylen Wilson combining for 18 tackles for loss and nine sacks. At the other end, Gunner Stockton has completed 70.9% of his throws with 20 touchdowns against four interceptions; the Bulldogs have finished 34 of 44 red-zone visits in the end zone. Missouri’s defense ranks 90th in explosive-play rate allowed, leaving room for Talyn Taylor to stretch the field. Center Drew Bobo’s doubtful designation complicates Georgia’s interior blocking, so I’m holding the projection below the Bulldogs’ 41.1-point season average. Stockton still has enough receiving help to create separation.
Projected score: Georgia 34, Missouri 14.
Michigan at Oregon
Best bet: Under 38.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Dylan Raiola has thrown for 593 yards and five touchdowns without an interception across Oregon’s last two games, so Michigan’s defense has serious work ahead. The Wolverines can make him sustain drives: They allow explosive gains on just 7.2% of plays and 2.56 line yards per carry. Oregon has been stuffed on 26.3% of its rushing attempts. Michigan’s offense has far fewer answers. Tommy Carr is the reported starter, Bryce Underwood is expected to play, and new playcaller Jim Harding inherits a unit with an 8% sack rate and a 4.1% interception rate. Oregon’s loss of edge rusher Teitum Tuioti softens the pass rush, but Michigan still must manufacture drives against a defense ranked 10th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. Raiola’s recent form is the danger; Michigan’s defense can make those touchdowns harder to collect.
Projected score: Oregon 24, Michigan 10.
Boston College at Notre Dame
Best bet: Boston College +29.5 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Boston College can lose decisively and still stay within this enormous allowance. Bo MacCormack III just rushed for 105 yards on 16 attempts against Florida State, and the Eagles rank among the top 25 in rushing success rate. Quarterback Mason McKenzie adds 75.1 rushing yards per game, forcing Notre Dame to account for another runner while linebacker Drayk Bowen remains out and defensive tackles Francis Brewu and Jason Onye carry questionable designations. CJ Carr should punish Boston College through the air: Notre Dame ranks third nationally in offensive EPA per play, and Carr just threw for 319 yards against Miami. The Eagles have intercepted 12 passes, though, with safety Charlie Comella responsible for four. Their ground game and opportunistic secondary can supply enough resistance to stay inside four touchdowns.
Projected score: Notre Dame 38, Boston College 13.
6:15 p.m.
Florida at Kentucky
Best bet: Kentucky -3 (-105) | Stake: 1u
As a Gators fan, I’ve spent five games waiting for Jadan Baugh to find his customary room. His rushing totals in that stretch: 13, 59, 91, 38 and 35 yards. Kentucky’s advantages in run-stuff rate and short-yardage defense threaten another afternoon of difficult downs. Aaron Philo returns at quarterback, but his 70.5% completion rate includes the early-season production that preceded Florida’s collapse, and receiver Vernell Brown III remains out. Kentucky quarterback Kenny Minchey has thrown only two interceptions in 266 attempts; he should find manageable throws against a Florida defense allowing +0.15 EPA per play and missing safety Bryce Thornton. The Wildcats’ own defense leaves Philo a path to answer, especially through the air. At a flat three, I trust Minchey’s care with the ball and Kentucky’s ability to crowd Baugh.
Projected score: Kentucky 27, Florida 20.
7 p.m.
Baylor at BYU
Best bet: Baylor +8.5 (-105) | Stake: 1u
DJ Lagway finally became Baylor’s first 100-yard rusher of the season last Saturday, and his timing suits this matchup. BYU linebacker Isaiah Glasker is out, joining cornerback Evan Johnson among the Cougars’ defensive absences. Lagway’s 119 rushing yards against Iowa State added a second problem to Gavin Freeman’s receiving work. Baylor can make this uncomfortable with its own front, which has collected 37 sacks; BYU ranks fourth nationally in sack rate allowed, making that confrontation the hinge of the game. Bear Bachmeier has thrown eight interceptions, and Baylor ranks eighth in opponent-adjusted passing EPA allowed. The Bears’ delayed travel and running back LJ Martin’s return favor BYU’s outright chances. Eight and a half points still covers a competitive game in which both quarterbacks must manufacture offense.
Projected score: BYU 27, Baylor 23.
Louisville at North Carolina
Best bet: Louisville -3.5 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Jeff Brohm can attack Carolina’s front with patience: The Tar Heels stop only 10.6% of runs at or behind the line and concede conversions on 83% of short-yardage power attempts. Louisville averages a national-best 3.13 open-field yards per carry, with Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown and quarterback Lincoln Kienholz offering different threats. Isaac Brown remained probable on the latest report. Carolina can answer through tight end Jelani Thurman, whose 45 catches include 28 first downs or touchdowns. The Tar Heels have finished 10 of their last 13 red-zone trips in the end zone, so Louisville will have to continue scoring. The Cardinals have succeeded on 50.6% of offensive plays, and their rushing variety gives Brohm enough ways to pull away from Carolina’s leaky front.
Projected score: Louisville 38, North Carolina 27.
7:30 p.m.
Purdue at Iowa
Best bet: Iowa -17.5 (-108) | Stake: 1u
Ryan Browne’s protection has a miserable assignment: Purdue allows sacks on 7.1% of dropbacks, and Iowa sacks opposing quarterbacks at a 10% clip. The Hawkeyes have allowed only two rushing touchdowns all season, making it difficult for Fame Ijeboi to relieve that pressure. Purdue can move the ball through receivers Asaad Waseem and Xavier Townsend, but the Boilermakers have finished only 22 of 40 red-zone trips with touchdowns. Iowa’s offense should enjoy a little generosity: Purdue permits explosive gains on 17% of plays and allows a 47.5% third-down conversion rate. L.J. Phillips Jr. rushed for 128 yards at Northwestern after Kamari Moulton’s season-ending injury, while Hank Brown has completed 36 of 45 passes across his last two appearances. Michael Myslinski already handled the previous start at center with Cael Winter doubtful.
Projected score: Iowa 34, Purdue 13.
Texas at LSU
Best bet: Texas +4.5 (-105) | Stake: 1u
Arch Manning may spend too much of Saturday escaping LSU’s front. The Tigers rank second nationally in sack rate, while Texas ranks 124th in sacks allowed per dropback; with left tackle Trevor Goosby out, that mismatch deserves real weight. I still prefer the points because the Longhorns can make Sam Leavitt work nearly as hard for his scoring possessions. Texas ranks fifth in points allowed per drive reaching its 40-yard line, against an LSU offense ranked 48th in finishing those opportunities. The Longhorns average 4.58 points on their own scoring opportunities, enough efficiency to survive some stalled drives. Texas can win a physical game through its defense and Manning’s receivers, though the protection problems make an outright upset a tougher proposition. At +4.5, I’ll accept a narrow loss in Baton Rouge.
Projected score: LSU 24, Texas 21.
9 p.m.
North Texas at UTSA
Best bet: North Texas -2.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Jahiem White against this UTSA front could consume the evening. North Texas’ running back averages 7.28 yards per carry; the Roadrunners just surrendered 339 rushing yards to Florida Atlantic. The Mean Green can exploit that weakness while preserving their passing game’s considerable ambition: Tayven Jackson averages 9.66 yards per attempt behind a line charged with eight sacks in nine games. North Texas has produced +0.28 predicted points added per standard-down play and allowed havoc on only 10.4% of snaps. UTSA quarterback Owen McCown can answer against a defense allowing a 41.9% success rate, and his four interceptions through nine games make easy separation a dangerous assumption. I’ll trust White and Jackson to finish one more possession.
Projected score: North Texas 45, UTSA 38.
9:30 p.m.
Utah State at San Diego State
Best bet: Under 44.5 (-118) | Stake: 1u
Bronco Mendenhall’s front has held three consecutive opponents below 100 rushing yards, most recently burying Fresno State under 10 tackles for loss. That threatens the work San Diego State needs from Lucky Sutton and Javion Kinnard. Aztecs quarterback Stone Saunders managed 102 passing yards against Washington State; repeated third-and-longs against a defense allowing a 38.6% success rate would invite punts. Utah State should manufacture some offense through McCae Hillstead’s legs, though leading receiver Eli Wood is out and the Aggies’ own 37.7% success rate limits my confidence in long drives. San Diego State’s porous defense is the danger: Its 49.1% success rate allowed could sustain Utah State possessions beyond their usual output. At 44.5, I can accommodate some improvement and still land below the number.
Projected score: Utah State 21, San Diego State 17.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
Best bet: Texas Tech +3.5 (-118) | Stake: 1u
Thomas Castellanos threw for 362 yards and five touchdowns against West Virginia while rushing for another 102. Oklahoma State now has to defend that movement with a unit allowing +0.12 EPA per play. The Red Raiders should sustain enough drives to stay within a field goal, even against Drew Mestemaker, whose 52.8% passing success rate ranks eighth among 191 qualifying quarterbacks. The Cowboys can attack a Texas Tech defense ranked 87th in explosive plays allowed, so I expect both quarterbacks to spend considerable time answering the other. Castellanos’ emergence changes the shape of this offense from the one Will Hammond directed earlier in the season. At +3.5, a narrow shootout loss still works for the visitors.
Projected score: Oklahoma State 38, Texas Tech 35.
10 p.m.
Wyoming at UTEP
Best bet: Under 40.5 (-110) | Stake: 1u
Tyler Hughes’ forearm injury removes Wyoming’s leading rusher from an offense already asking its ground game to carry much of the evening. Landon Sims finished the UNLV win with 25 passing yards; his touchdown throw came on a design involving a lateral from Hughes. Samuel Harris and Markell Holman can still move this offense, but UTEP should have fewer quarterback-run problems to solve. The Miners have surrendered 41 sacks and converted only 29 of 112 third downs. Wyoming’s front has collected 17 sacks during its four-game winning streak, making obvious passing situations a miserable assignment. Raymond Moore III’s scrambling supplies the danger: Wyoming has conceded 5.53 yards per carry. That warrants room for a Miner touchdown drive or two, with sustained passing offense remaining a much harder proposition.
Projected score: Wyoming 23, UTEP 13.
10:30 p.m.
Utah at Arizona
Best bet: Utah -1.5 (-102) | Stake: 1u
Devon Dampier rushed for 89 yards and two touchdowns against BYU while throwing two more, and Arizona now has to account for that extra ball carrier through an entire game. Utah generates +0.27 EPA per rush, fourth nationally, against a Wildcats defense ranked 50th in that measure. The Utes convert 53% of third downs; Arizona allows opponents to convert 39%. Those sustained possessions matter against Noah Fifita, whose offense ranks 16th in passing EPA and can punish Utah whenever the Utes leave him another series. Running back Wayshawn Parker’s reported upgrade to probable helps, although his workload still needs confirmation. I’ll lay 1.5 with Dampier’s running and passing, while expecting Fifita to make this thoroughly unpleasant for Utah’s secondary.
Projected score: Utah 31, Arizona 27.
Colorado State at Washington State
Best bet: Colorado State +9.5 (-112) | Stake: 1u
Washington State can run directly at a Colorado State defense surrendering 6.89 yards per carry, and Owen Eshelman has already rushed for 136 yards in a game. The Rams will need touchdowns. Hauss Hejny’s 16 touchdown passes against two interceptions suggest they can answer, particularly with Washington State generating sacks on just 2.9% of opposing dropbacks. Colorado State allows sacks on 1.8% of its own dropbacks; Hejny should have opportunities to work beyond his first read. Mel Brown’s workload remains uncertain after he left last week’s game early, though coach Jim Mora expects him and Durell Robinson to be available. The Cougars’ 36.7% offensive success rate makes a double-digit margin a considerable demand. I expect the Rams’ passing game to sustain a fourth-quarter chase.
Projected score: Washington State 38, Colorado State 34.
11 p.m.
North Dakota State at Hawaii
Best bet: Hawaii +7 (-112) | Stake: 1u
North Dakota State’s defense can make Micah Alejado earn every completion: The Bison have surrendered only seven red-zone touchdowns, while Hawaii has converted 16 of 34 visits into six points. Their own offense presents a shakier case for separation. NDSU has failed to average five yards per carry in any game, and its 31-7 victory over UTEP included a late defensive touchdown and another score after an interception. Alejado just directed a 98-yard touchdown drive at UTEP, then repeatedly found Titan Lacaden on third down to exhaust the clock. Forecast gusts above 25 mph threaten Hawaii’s passing-heavy approach, and receiver Audric Harris remains questionable. NDSU arrived around 5 a.m. Friday after a lengthy mechanical delay to its charter. I’ll take the touchdown cushion against an offense that has struggled to establish its ground game.
Projected score: North Dakota State 21, Hawaii 17.
