The Toronto Raptors and the Philadelphia 76ers played out one of the most memorable Eastern Conference playoff series in the last decade in 2019, which ended in a Kawhi Leonard Game 7 dagger. While the teams have played each other in the postseason once since then, in 2022, their 2019 series continues to live more prominently in the memories of most NBA fans, especially now that Leonard is back on the Raptors.
Toronto will travel to face off with Philadelphia for the first time this season tonight at 7 p.m. ET in what a clash of two likely playoff teams, both of whom made significant moves over the summer.
Unfortunately, injuries have taken some of the shine off of the matchup. Scottie Barnes (groin), Nate Bittle (foot), Trayce Jackson-Davis (illness), Leonard (knee), and Kevin McCullar Jr. (G-League) are all out for the Raptors. Dominick Barlow (back), Adem Bona (back), Ariel Hukporti (Achilles), and LeBron James (back) are all out for the 76ers, and Joel Embiid (foot) is questionable.
Philadelphia is a 7.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook (-270 Moneyline), with the point total set to 224.5. Toronto is +221 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down this possible playoff preview and offer a prediction.
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers preview, prediction
The Raptors have slumped to five losses in their last seven games as a result of injuries. Leonard only played the first two games of the season and wasn’t particularly impactful in those games, and Barnes has missed each of the last three contests after getting his season off to a hot start. Jakob Poeltl and Jackson-Davis have both missed two games, leaving Toronto even thinner at center, and both Jamal Shead and Immanuel Quickley have shot the ball rather inefficiently. The Raptors have still had the league’s 14th-best offense and 13th-best defense, so they’re probably slightly unlucky overall to have a losing record.
Meanwhile, the 76ers’ new-look core has clicked more quickly than nearly anybody expected, and they’re 9-3 despite a pair of losses in their last three games. Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, James, and Embiid are all averaging at least 15 points per game, and even though James and Embiid haven’t shot the ball very effectively, each of the stars has a positive on-court net rating except for James. Additionally, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Dean Wade, and Anfernee Simons have provided plenty of shooting, with Wade also chipping in defensively. Philadelphia has had the ninth-worst offense, which seems bound to improve, and it’s paired it with the league’s sixth-best defense.
Raptors at 76ers pick, best bet
Both of these teams have been excellent at getting to the rim so far this season and not so good at finishing, as Toronto ranks eighth in restricted-area attempts per game and 20th in accuracy, and Philadelphia ranks sixth and 25th, respectively. Both teams’ driving could take a hit tonight, given that James ranks third on the 76ers in layups per game and Barnes second on the Raptors, especially since Toronto’s leader in that category, RJ Barrett, hasn’t been very efficient with his looks. Both of these teams have also had porous rim protection, with Philadelphia allowing the fourth-most restricted-area shots and the Raptors the 12th-most. Each team ranks in the bottom 10 in opponent percentage on such looks, as Embiid no longer plays DPOY-level defense and Poeltl never did. The 76ers’ interior defense could look better tonight, since James is no longer much of a rim protector, and Barnes’ absence will surely hurt Toronto.
So far this season, the Raptors have been better on the glass, though that could even up somewhat tonight since Barnes has had a net-positive impact on the boards and Philadelphia has been a more competitive rebounding team with James riding the pine. Toronto should be able to maintain its edge in transition; although Barnes and Leonard are extremely menacing on the fast-break, so is James, even at his advanced age. The Raptors also struggle with their discipline, and although they draw tons of fouls, Barnes is significantly better at drawing contact than James at this stage in his career. Without Barnes’ physical play to contend with, the 76ers should be able to stay out of foul trouble, which will be critical given how much worse their bench has been than Toronto’s so far.
Neither of these teams can shoot much, as both rank in the bottom 10 in both three-point attempts per game and three-point percentage. For what it’s worth, I’d favor the Raptors to turn around their shooting first, given that they’ve generated 5.1 more wide-open triples per game than Philadelphia has, and both teams have connected on such looks at among the lowest rates. Furthermore, Toronto has been one of the few teams better than the 76ers at closing out on opposing shooters, and that’s not necessarily because of Barnes, who ranks in only the 33rd percentile in total contests per 100 possessions so far this season.
In the end, I’m going to fade both of these teams’ offenses. Both lack much of a perimeter offensive game, and both teams generally hustle back in transition, nullifying each other’s strengths in that area. Furthermore, Barnes, despite being a DPOY-caliber defender, actually had a more positive impact on the Raptors’ offense last season than their defense when he was on the court. Wade will likely step into the lineup for James, and he’s a better defender at this stage of their respective careers. Three of each team’s last five games have stayed under the total.
