Memphis quarterback Marcus Stokes carved Army apart before the Tigers’ bye, completing 29 of 36 passes for 371 yards in a 49–22 romp. Memphis drove at least 68 yards on five touchdown possessions and converted 11 of 15 third downs. Stokes has given his receivers ample reason to sprint downfield. South Florida gets the considerable chore of interrupting that rhythm in its final night game at Raymond James Stadium before moving on campus. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the South Florida Bulls and the Memphis Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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USF vs. Memphis prediction, preview
The Bulls can make Stokes hurry. South Florida has collected 23 sacks and 68 tackles for loss, with pass rusher C.J. Hicks leading the pursuit (five sacks). Memphis previously unraveled under Tulane’s pressure, allowing five first-half sacks and turning the ball over six times in a 31–17 loss. USF has intercepted only two passes this season, so I’m looking for its front to spoil third downs rather than counting on another avalanche of giveaways. Army never sacked Stokes.
Even when Stokes escapes that pressure, South Florida has been stubborn near its goal line, allowing touchdowns on just nine of 22 red-zone visits. Memphis running back Jaylin Carter will test that resistance (929 rushing yards, 6.15 YPC), and Stokes has four receivers with at least 400 yards to find if the Bulls crowd the run. I expect Memphis to move the ball. USF can still make the Tigers settle for enough kicks to restrain an offense averaging a formidable 37.6 points.
South Florida needs running back D.J. Crowther to punish Memphis’s own defensive failures. Army gashed the Tigers for 320 net rushing yards, and the Bulls’ outside-zone and counter runs from two-tight-end formations give them a credible way to attack. Crowther rushed for 111 yards at East Carolina before leaving injured in the fourth quarter; his availability remains unresolved, along with quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr.’s. USF has a genuine rushing opportunity here, though replacing Crowther would make exploiting it harder.
Memphis vs. USF pick, best bet
Luke Kromenhoek completed 17 of 21 passes for 179 yards in the 20–17 ECU loss, but the Bulls still punted seven times while allowing three sacks and 10 tackles for loss. USF has repeatedly wasted promising starts: in conference play, the Bulls scored on four of five opening drives, then on only 13 of their next 46 possessions. They have to block better after the first script runs out, whichever quarterback plays.
I’m taking the under with room for Crowther to contribute if he’s cleared. USF has reached the end zone on only 16 of 28 red-zone possessions despite scoring on 27 of them; the Bulls have made a frustrating habit of settling for three. Memphis should finish more successfully, but South Florida’s front and goal-line resistance give me enough reason to put the Tigers in the high 20s. At 50.5, USF can have productive stretches on the ground without requiring this bet to survive another Memphis offensive eruption.
Best bet: Under 50.5 (-112)
Projected score: Memphis 27, South Florida 20
Best Bet: USF vs. Memphis u50.5 total points scored (-110)
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