I’m publishing the NFL Week 10 best bets cheat a little early this week with just one play that I like a lot for Sunday. Be sure to check back throughout the week for updates and additions leading up to kickoff on Sunday.
Let’s breakdown some NFL Week 10 predictions and picks.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:25pm ET)
After losing their first game of the season in Atlanta in Week 8, the 49ers bounced back strong at home on Sunday. San Francisco dominated the Raiders wire-to-wire in a 21-point win, easily covering. The Niners improved to 7-1 on the season, and now head back on the road to face the Cowboys.
Dallas is also off a win, but it looked a whole lot different. The Cowboys squeaked one out in Indianapolis on Sunday, blowing a big lead and needing a game-winning drive to escape. Dallas’ wins this season have now come over the Commanders, Texans, Eagles and Colts — those teams have a combined record of 9-24-1.
The Cowboys have only played two teams with a winning record this season, losing both games convincingly. They lost as favorites in Week 1 to the Giants and then again in Week 6 to the Packers. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt on their neutral field loss to the Ravens as well, given Lamar Jackson was healthy at the time. The other two losses have been relatively embarrassing. Dallas has not been playing well at home this season, with its last win in Week 2 over Washington.
The two home games since then have resulted in losses to the Buccaneers and Cardinals as huge favorites against backup quarterbacks. The defense has been gashed through the air and on the ground against practically any offense it has faced. The Cowboys rank 25th in the NFL in points per game allowed at 26.2.
San Francisco has been consistently finding ways, despite dealing with injuries all season. It ranks just outside of the top-five in the NFL, allowing 19.5 points per game. While Dallas is solid on offense, ranking sixth in the NFL in scoring, the Niners are a couple of points per game better and rank third.
The 49ers have signature wins that show a level of play the Cowboys just cannot get to. San Fran dominated the Rams on a neutral, beat Denver at home and went on the road to knock off Seattle. Of their seven wins, six of them have been by six or more points. The only close one against the Seahawks came as a road underdog, winning by a field goal.
As the 49ers get more healthy, they’re only getting more dangerous. Many have them power rated the top overall team in the NFL. The Cowboys cannot be trusted against competition of this level. I’ll back the Niners in this spot.
NFL Pick: 49ers -3.5 (-115)
