The Green Bay Packers’ offense is electric, and with little run game to speak of, they’re airing the ball out at a very high rate. This newfound pass-happy attack has allowed quarterback Jordan love to thrive in fantasy football, but it seems he’s still not getting the respect he deserves for his play. In fantasy football, he’s been a borderline elite option and has provided steady production in plenty of lineups.
However, the Packers are set to take on the Minnesota Vikings and their formidable defense. Heading into Week 10, does Love remain in must-start territory for fantasy managers?
Is Jordan Love a must-start in Week 10?
The offensive environment in Green Bay this season has allowed Love to truly thrive as a gunslinger. The Packers didn’t have running back Josh Jacobs available for the first six weeks, and even since returning, he and the run game haven’t exactly thrived. As such, the team sits second in PROE at 6.7% and Love is dropping back 40.0 times per game, eighth most of any quarterback. He’s been very impressive with this newfound volume, looking like the version of himself we saw in his first year as a full-time starter when the Pack emphasized the passing attack.
Love has completed 63.0% of his passes, amassing 2,618 passing yards and 19 touchdowns to six interceptions. His play has supported true breakouts for wideouts Matthew Golden and Christian Watson, who are fourth and third in the NFL in receiving yards. In fantasy football, Love is averaging 21.34 FPPG (per FantasyPointsData) and has dished out 20+ fantasy points in four of the last five weeks – including an explosive performance of over 36 points in Week 9.
The results Love has delivered thus far speak for themselves, but he’s in line for one of the toughest matchups of the season in Week 10. He and the Packers get a rematch against the Vikings, whose defense has been nothing short of incredible. Brian Flores’ unit terrorizes opposing offenses and sends waves of blitzers to keep quarterbacks off their rhythm. As such, facing them is a tall task for anyone, but particularly for Love since his offensive line has been shaky throughout much of the season.
In fact, Minnesota’s defense leads the NFL in passing success rate and EPA/dropback allowed, also conceding the fourth-lowest explosive pass rate to opponents. The Vikings’ blitz rate of 71.0% is tops in the league by a wide margin, with the next-closest team clocking in at 43.8%. It’s not a recipe for fantasy points from the quarterbacks they face, with the 9.8 FPPG allowed to QBs the fewest of any team. On a per-dropback basis, they allow only 0.29 fantasy points.
This is truly a nightmarish matchup for Love and his weapons, but for what it’s worth, he did post a very respectable day in Week 1 against this same defense. He went 21-for-40 in that contest with 387 passing yards and two touchdowns to one interception, scoring 19.5 fantasy points.
One encouraging sign for Love is that he’s been quite solid against the blitz this season. He’s faced at least one extra rusher on 14.0 dropbacks per game and grades out at 10th among 35 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA/dropback on such instances. He’s also 10th in pressure-to-sack rate with a 60.8% completion rate, 893 yards and eight touchdowns on 120 pass attempts against the blitz. His 7.08 FPPG against the blitz also ranks fourth among the same sample.
The thing about blitzing is that it does potentially open the door to some big plays. That’s exactly where Love thrives, amassing a league-high 22 completions of 20+ yards. There are avenues for him to still produce a solid line in fantasy this week if he can just hit his guys for a couple of longer completions. If nothing else, volume should be in his favor since the Packers just lost Jacobs to a finger injury, leaving the backfield rather devoid of standout talent once again.
He’s not the best play this week by any means, but Love can still deliver back-end QB1 value in Week 10, even in a tough matchup. He’s not in must-start territory for this game, but if you don’t have better options, you don’t have to feel bad about penciling him into the lineup.
