The NFL’s trade deadline came and went on Tuesday, bringing a flurry of movement across the league. One of the biggest names moved was Josh Downs, the young wideout who was sent from the Colts to the Chiefs as the latter looked to address a much-depleted receiver corps.
Now, he finds himself with a massive upgrade at quarterback as he catches passes from Patrick Mahomes. Does that make Downs a trade target for fantasy football as he heads to Kansas City’s offense?
Should you buy low on Josh Downs after his trade to the Chiefs?
Downs hasn’t been stellar this season by any means, but neither has the Colts’ offense as a whole. Quarterback Daniel Jones has been one of the worst signal-callers in football, likely feeling some lingering impacts from the torn Achilles tendon he suffered last season. As such, most of Indianapolis’ pass-catchers have put forth disappointing fantasy seasons, and Downs is no exception with just 8.34 FPPG in PPR formats. He’s caught 33-of-57 targets for 354 yards and one touchdown, but the flashes have been real for the wideout. He had a couple of weeks with 70+ receiving yards in Week 2 and Week 3, with the first of those games coming against Kansas City.
It seems the Chiefs may have been impressed with what they saw early in the year. On Tuesday, they gave a fourth and fifth-round pick for Downs and a seventh, securing some help at a position of need.
The big question now becomes whether the change of scenery can help rejuvenate the outlook for the 25-year-old receiver as he heads into free agency this offseason. Based on some of what he’s shown in the past, there’s definitely some untapped upside in Downs’ profile that could allow him to really pop in fantasy football with his new team. The usage will tell all, but what should we expect from him moving forward?
The Chiefs do have one of the best quarterbacks to ever walk the planet lining up under center in Mahomes, which provides a massive improvement over the gunslingers Downs has been catching passes from throughout his career. This Kansas City offense has also been far more productive than the Colts’ this year, ranking ninth in points per drive third in passing success rate. As of Week 10, 27.9% of the Chiefs’ drives are ending in a touchdown this season compared to just 16.5% for Indianapolis.
Downs immediately steps into a better situation than he was in prior to this trade, which should provide additional scoring opportunities. The big unknown is how much work he’ll actually get, but based on the draft capital his new team invested in him, it’s fair to estimate he’ll step into a key role. The Chiefs clearly needed some additional help on their offense with Rashee Rice and an aging Travis Kelce as their top two receiving options – especially after Xavier Worthy suffered a hamstring injury last week – and Downs does provide more consistent ability to beat man coverage than either of those two healthy players do. He could be a key piece of this passing attack sooner rather than later.
While Downs has never been a star during his three prior NFL seasons, he did average 13.1 FPPG during his second professional season. That year, he ranked 20th among 124 qualifying wideouts with 2.28 YPRR and averaged 57.4 receiving yards per game, also ranking 25th in separation score and 26th in YAC/reception. He may not earn 7.4 targets per game as he did during that campaign, but he could very well produce at a level closer to what he showed as a sophomore now that he finds himself in an environment that’s much more conducive to scoring fantasy points.
So, should fantasy managers trade for Downs ahead of Week 10? That depends on the price tag opposing managers place on him, but in the midst of an underwhelming season, buying low on him in a new destination does bring some appeal. He should be able to produce weekly FLEX value with room for some spike weeks moving forward once he’s settled in with Kansas City, so he’s a player I would personally target if I can buy low.
