Nearly seven months after he was selected with the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, it’s finally Fernando Mendoza’s time to shine. At the NFL trade deadline, the Las Vegas Raiders cashed in on quarterback Kirk Cousins’ strong start to the 2026 season, sending him to the Minnesota Vikings and handing the keys to the franchise to Mendoza.
Mendoza takes over a Raiders team that has lost five of its last six games to drop to 4-5, one game behind the AFC’s final playoff spot. Aidan O’Connell will become his primary backup, and while it’s possible that Las Vegas brings in a third quarterback for the practice squad, the Raiders surely hope that Mendoza will be starting for the next decade.
Fantasy managers have already reacted to the news, as Mendoza has been the most widely-added quarterback in Yahoo Sports fantasy leagues today.
Results and Usage
Mendoza had previously appeared in one game, entering for one drive in relief of Cousins in the 45-17 loss to the New England Patriots in Week 5. He was solid in that outing, completing six of his eight passes for 48 yards and picking up three first downs. Of course, his bull case relies on a much larger sample size: during his senior season at Indiana, he completed 72.0% of his passes for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just six interceptions while leading the Hoosiers to the national title and winning the Heisman Trophy.
The preseason demonstrated that he still had work to do, as he went just 25-for-45 (55.6%) for 240 yards, throwing one touchdown pass to two interceptions. However, Las Vegas wouldn’t have traded Cousins if it didn’t feel confident that he had put in the work, so his poor performances in the exhibition games shouldn’t suggest anything about his likely production in his first few NFL starts. Preseason numbers can be extremely fickle, and what’s far more confidence-inspiring is the fact that both Cousins and head coach Klint Kubiak have repeatedly praised Mendoza’s work ethic and talent.
Future Outlook
Every quarterback prospect is different, but the prior quarterback picked number one overall, Cam Ward, struggled in his NFL debut, completing just 12 of his 28 passes for 112 yards (3.5 DraftKings DFS points). Of course, Ward started Week 1, and the most recent quarterback selected first overall to not start the season’s opening game was Baker Mayfield in 2018. That season, Mayfield made his first start in Week 4 against the Raiders, completing 21 of his 41 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions (16.8 FPTS). Mendoza’s most frequent comparison in the draft process was 2016 first overall pick Jared Goff, who made his first career start in Week 11 after learning behind Case Keenum and completed 17 of his 31 passes for 134 yards (6.5 FPTS).
Las Vegas has enough talent on its roster to help Mendoza find some early success. Kubiak operates a fairly pass-centric system, as the Raiders rank ninth in total passing attempts this season and just 25th in total rushing attempts, in part because both Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. have been extremely inefficient. Mendoza loved to make short and intermediate throws between the numbers in college, and he has a pretty strong tight end duo to throw to in Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer, who have combined for 87 catches, 1,046 yards, and seven touchdowns on 116 targets. Plus, as bad as Jeanty has been as a runner, he leads all running backs with 371 receiving yards. Las Vegas’ offensive line has done its quarterback no favors, and Mendoza wasn’t exactly great under pressure in the preseason, but he did thrive when under duress at Indiana in 2025.
However, first overall picks’ recent track record provides a reason for caution, as does Mendoza’s opponent in his debut. The Seattle Seahawks rode their defense to the 2026 Super Bowl title, and this season, Seattle has conceded the second-fewest FPTS per game to opposing quarterbacks. In fact, the Seahawks have allowed fewer yards per game than any other team, the third-lowest passer rating, and the fewest net yards per attempt while getting pressure at the second-highest rate. I’d stash Mendoza on the bench for the first three weeks of his starting career, but as long as he shows flashes, he is worth starting once his schedule lightens up after the Raiders’ Week 13 bye.
