We’ve got a battle at the top of Group 2 on Friday. The Netherlands, one of the favorites in the contest, are no surprise at the top. But it’s this Cinderella Greece team that is turning heads and is tied with the Netherlands at eight points apiece. After drawing in the first contest, three points would have all but secured the group winner. This one is going to be electric.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Netherlands are -210 favorites, with a draw priced at +330. Greece is set at +450 to spring the upset.
Netherlands vs. Greece Pick, Best Bet
The first match of group play between these two sides was a whirlwind. Only 18 minutes into the match, star Greek winger Christos Tzolis was forced to leave the match with an injury, replaced by Giorgos Masouras. Masouras turned things around immediately, supplying an assist five minutes later and scoring right before halftime to make it 2-0. New Netherlands manager Xavi Hernandez had seen enough and made three changes at halftime to fuel the comeback. Captain Virgil van Dijk broke the Greek defense with a 59th-minute goal, and substitute Tijjani Reijnders equalized in the 89th minute. It was a hard-fought point for both sides, and neither was happy with the result given how things played out.
The Greeks built their defense for this tournament. Incredibly, they kept a clean sheet in both matches against Germany, fueling their rise to the top of the group. Goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis has excelled in the net, and the Brothers Konstantinos (Tsimikas and Mavropanos) have been dynamite in front of him. Manolis Saliakas has also given them a strong veteran effort on the right flank. Thanasis Androutsos and Dimitrios Kourbelis have played important roles in central midfield, flying around and making defensive contributions on both sides. That adds up to two clean sheets and three total goals allowed across four group-stage matches.
To be competitive in this tie, they must find their attacking magic again. That starts with Christos Tzolis; he is the most talented and productive attacker on this roster and will be crucial on the counter. Vangelis Pavlidis and Fotis Ioannidis, both of whom ply their trade in the Portuguese league, have been a solid striking duo for this team. The biggest X-factor here is Konstantinos Karetsas; the 18-year-old is getting big minutes on the right wing for the Greeks, and looks like a foundational piece for manager Ivan Jovanović.
A lot of pressure is on the Dutch attack here. The second goal has been all-important for them lately; they’re 5-2-0 this season in competitive matches when they score multiple goals. Impressively, their attack has not been shut out in any of their nine matches this season. What is concerning is that their defense has surrendered at least one goal in eight straight matches. The top center-back trio—Virgil van Dijk, Micky van de Ven, and Jan Paul van Hecke—has declined significantly. They’re slow and vulnerable on the counterattack, costing them goals against quicker underdog sides playing on the counter. This shifting attacking group has to find results, or recent history indicates they’ll struggle.
This is the right time for Greece to capitalize on a waning Dutch team. A squad so heavy on continuity takes time to adjust to a new manager, and the Netherlands still has a way to go to find consistency. Greece isn’t an upstart by accident, and I think they’ll ride the defense, grab a point on the road, and take this battle down to the final matchday.
