Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams prediction, pick for NFL Week 9 on Sunday 11/08/26

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has gone three games without clearing 222 passing yards. He managed just 157 against the Chargers, while running backs Kyren Williams and Blake Corum ran for 129 and scored twice. At Northwest Stadium, coach Sean McVay could use another afternoon of those productive handoffs: Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels can drag a depleted Rams secondary into a much more demanding game. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Washington Commanders and the Los Angeles Rams.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

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Commanders vs. Rams prediction, preview

McVay ought to make Washington’s remaining defensive tackles work. Jer’Zhan Newton returns, but Daron Payne and Javon Kinlaw are still unavailable, and Williams has been shaking tacklers off at the highest rate among qualifying backs (.39 forced missed tackles per carry). He also leads that group with a 62.5% rushing success rate. Washington has squeezed opposing backs to 1.58 adjusted yards before contact per carry, so Williams will have to earn his way through traffic. I’d give him plenty of chances to wear that depleted rotation down.

Stafford has cleared the report after his throwing-arm soreness, and guard Steve Avila is available again. Washington sacked Eagles quarterback Tanner McKee five times last week; beating this Rams line, which ranks in the top ten by pass-block win rate, should take more work. Stafford can waste that blocking by forcing a throw. He has already thrown four interceptions against the blitz this season, and McVay has fewer tight ends available to answer pressure: Terrance Ferguson is out, Colby Parkinson questionable.

I’d send the ball straight back to Puka Nacua and make Washington tackle him all afternoon. The Rams receiver caught 11 of Stafford’s 17 completions against the Chargers for 80 yards; he has averaged 2.93 yards per route against two-high coverage this season. Washington shows those structures on 67.6% of dropbacks. Stafford can unload into those openings rather than wait for a deep route to develop. Nacua and Williams give McVay a way to chip away at this defense without repeatedly exposing Stafford to another hurried mistake.

Rams vs. Commanders pick, best bet

Daniels needs to revive his own running threat after gaining 33 yards on six carries over the past two games. Bills quarterback Josh Allen supplied 121 of the 199 quarterback-rushing yards Los Angeles has conceded. Returning Rams edge rusher Myles Garrett has to contain Daniels while pursuing him. Behind Garrett, cornerback Jaylen Watson is out, with cornerback Trent McDuffie and safety Kam Curl questionable. Washington is missing receivers Terry McLaurin, Treylon Burks and Dyami Brown, but wideouts Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams and tight end Chig Okonkwo can still punish defenders who abandon coverage to chase Daniels.

Daniels has less help on handoffs. Washington backs Bill Croskey-Merritt and Jeremy McNichols are unavailable, leaving Rachaad White and Austin Ekeler against a defense that has held half its opponents below 100 rushing yards. Buffalo and San Francisco did run for 234 and 174, respectively; the Rams can be beaten there, but Washington has lost several players who could help reproduce that strain. I expect Daniels to scramble out of some bad downs and manufacture scores. Stafford should reach scoring range more regularly through Nacua and the backs. I’m laying 4.5 at -120.

Best bet: Rams -4.5 (-120)

Projected score: Rams 27, Commanders 20.

Best Bet: Rams -4.5 (-120) at Commanders