Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown ran for 115 yards in Athens, carrying the Tigers through a gutsy 27–24 win over Georgia. Auburn has since stumbled through consecutive losses to LSU and Ole Miss, with Brown spending far too much of both afternoons dealing with defenders in his backfield. Arkansas arrives at Jordan-Hare after another miserable lesson in how quickly giveaways can wreck a game. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Auburn Tigers and the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Auburn vs. Arkansas prediction, preview
The Razorbacks handed Missouri four turnovers, including a defensive touchdown, and watched the Tigers turn those mistakes into 24 points. Arkansas still had its own possessions to repair the damage and managed only 59 rushing yards. Quarterback KJ Jackson threw for 229 without a touchdown. Across competitive FBS drives, Arkansas has averaged 1.41 points and reached the end zone on a paltry 14.1%. Jackson has been doing too much work just to get the offense another down.
Auburn has made Brown work just as hard. The Tigers have allowed 34 sacks through eight games, and they averaged 1.11 and 1.67 points per competitive drive against LSU and Ole Miss. Brown has rushed for a touchdown in six straight games, but he can’t outrun every failed block. Auburn finished those two losses with 66 and 63 net rushing yards, including the sack losses. Too often, Brown has had to spend a good carry recovering yards his blockers just surrendered.
Jackson did get help in Arkansas’ win at Vanderbilt. He threw for 251 yards, ran for 58 and directed touchdown marches of 75, 75 and 53 yards. Back Cam Settles scored twice. With fellow back Braylen Russell and receiver Chris Marshall probable, Jackson should have more options against an Auburn defense that let Ole Miss convert an appalling 13 of 16 third downs. Tigers cornerback Andre Jordan Jr. and safety Sylvester Smith-Reed are questionable. Arkansas can hurt that secondary if Jackson gets the ball out before Auburn’s pressure arrives.
Arkansas vs. Auburn pick, best bet
Brown has his own inviting matchup after Arkansas let Missouri back Jamal Roberts run for 138 yards on 23 carries. His legs could get Auburn into the 30s, and another Jackson giveaway would spare him much of the field. The Tigers’ defense has also conceded at least 4.22 points per competitive drive in each of the last two games. Arkansas has rarely sustained anything resembling those LSU and Ole Miss offenses, though, and Auburn has plenty of its own bad downs to survive before this becomes a scoring exchange.
I’m taking under 53.5. Brown can break a run and Jackson can exploit a missing defensive back without either offense suddenly shedding its worst habits. I expect Auburn to advance more consistently, with Arkansas managing enough through the air to remain competitive. Both lines have left their quarterbacks cleaning up too many possessions for me to expect four quarters of clean finishing.
Best bet: Under 53.5 (-105).
Projected score: Auburn 27, Arkansas 20.
Best Bet: Auburn vs. Arkansas u53.5 total points scored (-110)
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