It’s an NBA Cup night, bringing colorful courts and additional stakes to Friday night’s schedule. Out in the Western Conference, the Timberwolves take on the Pelicans tonight in what should be a fun affair, especially with the latter on a four-game winning streak to claw their way back to the .500 mark.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Friday’s Timberwolves vs. Pelicans matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans prediction, preview
The Timberwolves looked like an early favorite to win the Western Conference through the first couple of games, but they lost Anthony Edwards for the foreseeable future when the star underwent a knee procedure. They’re still 6-3 overall and 1-0 in NBA Cup play, and it’s worth noting they’re even 3-2 in Edwards’ absence. Minnesota ranks second in NETRTG at +11.1 and is great on both sides of the ball. The offense is producing the sixth-most PPG with 118.8 and the No. 8 OFFRTG. Regardless of which numbers you look at, they’re largely around the league’s upper third – they’re sixth in both FG% (47.6%) and 3P% (38.0%), and 12th in assists (26.8) and turnovers per game (15.4). The Wolves are also second in rebounding with 49.2 boards a night. Defensively, they’re also quite stout with the third-best DEFRTG and fourth-fewest PPG allowed per game (107.6). Two-way excellence is a theme here, to say the least.
Offseason acquisition LaMelo Ball averages 17.2 points and 5.9 assists per game, both of which are team highs, excluding Edwards. Jaden McDaniels is playing a key role in the offense with 16.4 points and 6.2 rebounds, while Ayo Dosunmu also brings 16.3 points with 4.3 dimes. Jonathan Kuminga also posts 12.7 PPG with over 10 shot attempts on average. Rudy Gobert’s offensive role is minimal, but the big man’s 11.9 rebounds a night are a high mark for this roster. On the injury report, Terrence Shannon Jr. is the only notable name ruled out beyond Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo.
The outlook appeared immensely dire for the Pelicans after four straight losses to open the campaign. However, they’ve since pulled things together with four straight wins to even their record at 4-4, with tonight marking their first NBA Cup contest, too. New Orleans is actually 14th in NETRTG at +2.2, sitting 13th in OFFRTG and 14th in DEFRTG. On a per-game level, the offense is far better than the defense, though pace does play a role in that – the Pels’ 121.6 PPG rank third in the league while their 119.2 PPG allowed fall 25th. They’re an interior-oriented team at first in 2PA and fourth in overall FG% (48.7%), falling dead last in 3PA and 26th in 3P% (31.7%). They’re coughing the ball up a little more than you’d like to see, and their 25.4 assists per game are just 22nd. However, they’ve been able to pour on the points. New Orleans also sits 11th in rebounding with 44.9 boards a game.
Zion Williamson has appeared in all eight games so far with a team-best 21.5 PPG, shooting 60.8% overall. Trey Murphy III – who was excellent last season – isn’t putting up the same numbers as before with just 14.9 PPG, but he’s scoring efficiently on reduced volume. Dejounte Murray appears to be back at full strength with 18.2 points, 5.6 assists and 6.2 rebounds per game in a major role, and Saddiq Bey brings 16.4 PPG, too. Sophomores Derik Queen and Jeremiah Fears are both posting double-digit points, too. On the injury report, center Yves Missi is out.
Timberwolves vs. Pelicans pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Timberwolves as a 3.5-point favorite on the road tonight with -166 odds on the Moneyline. The Pelicans are a +140 underdog to win outright at home with the total set at 230.5 combined points.
This New Orleans team is scoring a ton of points, but doing that against this Minnesota defense may prove tricky. The Wolves allow the fifth-lowest FG% to opponents at 43.4% and have a multi-time DPOY in Gobert – even as he ages – manning the paint. They’re also the better team on the boards and lead the NBA in offensive rebounding, while the Pels fall 20th in that stat themselves. These are the factors that are likely to play the biggest roles in determining tonight’s outcome, as is the fact that the Pelicans have allowed such high point totals to opponents. New Orleans will try to make this a boat race, but even if that happens, Minnesota still has the horsepower and supporting cast to come out on top.
