The Utah Mammoth visit the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Bell Centre. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Utah is a -122 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Canadiens vs. Mammoth prediction and best bet.
Canadiens vs. Mammoth Odds
| Market | Utah Mammoth | Montreal Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -122 | +102 |
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+195) | +1.5 (-238) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-105) | Under 6.5 (-115) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Canadiens vs. Mammoth Betting Preview
Montreal Canadiens Outlook
Montreal has gone 7-1-2 over its past 10 outings and owns a solid 53.0% 5v5 Fenwick% (ninth), but the Canadiens have allowed 47 goals on 52.0 xGoals, and Jacob Fowler has been the main reason the results have held up. He’ll get the night off, though, after facing 47 shots in a wild 5-4 overtime loss to Winnipeg on Tuesday, a game in which Montreal blew a 4-0 lead by allowing four goals in the final 2:39 of regulation.
That puts Jakub Dobes between the pipes, and he has allowed four or more goals in four of his six starts. The 25-year-old owns an .853 SV% and 4.05 GAA, far from the .901 SV% he posted across 43 games last season, and his -6.2 GSAx ranks 72nd among 74 goaltenders, while his -2.03% SV% above expected ranks 66th. Fowler’s +9.8 GSAx ranks second, so there’s a rather large gap here tonight.
Cole Caufield (10 goals on 6.1 xGoals) and Josh Anderson (seven goals) have carried the scoring for the club, while Lane Hutson leads the team in primary assists. The power play has looked quite bad, converting just 13.0% (30th) of the time, with just three goals on 5.9 xGoals at 5-on-4. Some good news, however, is that Nick Suzuki (hand) is questionable after missing the past six games, and he had 12 points in nine games before getting hurt, so his return would give the Canadiens’ top six a big boost.
Utah Mammoth Outlook
Utah sports a 55.8% 5v5 Fenwick% (third), yet it has scored just 31 goals on 38.6 xGoals at 5v5. The club’s finishing has come on the power play instead, where the Mammoth have scored 19 goals on 12.4 xGoals at 5-on-4 and convert 36.4% (second) of the time. Clayton Keller leads the team with 21 points, while Nick Schmaltz and Logan Cooley have eight goals apiece.
Utah has allowed 54 goals on just 42.1 xGoals, and its .866 team SV% ranks 30th in the NHL, perhaps its biggest weakness and the primary area holding the Mammoth back from looking like a true contender. Sebastian Cossa is expected to draw the start in net after winning his past three outings, but he owns an .875 SV% with a -3.3 GSAx (62nd) and a -1.33% SV% above expected (61st), and Utah’s penalty kill ranks T-25th at 70.0%. The Mammoth are 6-4-0 on the road, where they’ve played 10 of their 16 games.
Canadiens vs. Mammoth Prediction and Best Bet
Utah’s 5v5 finishing is due to catch up with its overall chance creation, and with Fowler taking the night off, both goaltending situations suggest that we will be seeing a healthy dose of goals. Dobes and Cossa both rank 62nd or worse in GSAx, and Utah’s netminders have already given up nearly 12 more goals than expected. Montreal’s games have gone over 6.5 goals in 10 of 15, Utah’s have in nine of 16, and three of the past four meetings between these teams have cleared this number, too. Utah’s second-ranked power play should also see solid opportunities against a struggling backup, so I like the over here at -105.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 Goals (-105)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
