The Boston Bruins visit the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday night, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET at PPG Paints Arena. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Pittsburgh is a -112 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Penguins vs. Bruins prediction and best bet.
Penguins vs. Bruins Odds
| Market | Boston Bruins | Pittsburgh Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -108 | -112 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-278) | -1.5 (+225) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-112) | Under 6.5 (-108) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Penguins vs. Bruins Betting Preview
Pittsburgh Penguins Outlook
Pittsburgh’s 5-8-2 record may look bad, but four of its past seven losses have come by a single goal, and the club’s underlying numbers have been trending up. Over their past 10 outings, the Penguins rank T-3rd in 5v5 Corsi% (55.1%) and fifth in 5v5 xGoals per 60 (2.77), yet they’ve scored just 33 goals on 36.0 xGoals at 5v5 this season while allowing 36 on 32.6 xGoals. Rickard Rakell leads the team in xGoals (5.5), and Sidney Crosby has generated 4.7 xGoals but has found twine just four times.
The biggest boost will come from Evgeni Malkin (lower body), who is set to return after missing Tuesday’s game against Vegas. He is tied for the team lead with six goals and has scored 2.5 more than expected, while Erik Karlsson leads the Penguins with 16 points. Arturs Silovs will start in net with an .888 SV% and 2.98 GAA, and his +2.0 GSAx ranks 21st among 74 goaltenders, while his +0.36% SV% above expected ranks 23rd. Pittsburgh has been much better at home (4-2-1) than on the road (1-6-1), too.
Boston Bruins Outlook
Boston sports a strong 11-4-1 record and has won seven of its past 10, but its numbers are far more middle-of-the-pack than its record. The Bruins own a 49.6% 5v5 Fenwick% (17th) and rank 25th in 5v5 Corsi% over their past 10 games (47.4%), and they’ve allowed just 20 goals on 32.2 xGoals at 5v5. That gap stems from goaltending excellence from both of the club’s netminders, and Boston’s .915 team SV% leads the NHL.
Jeremy Swayman is expected to draw his 13th start after posting a .912 SV% and 2.31 GAA. His +7.3 GSAx ranks sixth, and his +1.09% SV% above expected ranks 14th, though he has allowed four goals in two of his past four starts. David Pastrnak unsurprisingly leads the Bruins with eight goals and 20 points, and James Hagens has chipped in six goals, scoring 2.3 more than expected. Boston is also just 4-3-1 on the road, compared to 7-1-0 at home, essentially the same theme as Pittsburgh.
Penguins vs. Bruins Prediction and Best Bet
Boston has won four of the past five meetings between these teams, but three of those wins came by a single goal, and Pittsburgh took the most recent one, 5-4 in overtime on March 8. The Bruins’ results are being propped up by goaltending that has saved 12 more goals than expected, while the Penguins have been on the wrong side of the variance at both ends. With Malkin back and the Penguins at home, where they’ve been far more competitive, I’ll back Pittsburgh in what’s essentially a coin-flip game.
Best Bet: Penguins Moneyline (-112)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
