The Anaheim Ducks visit the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday night, with puck drop set for 8:00 p.m. ET at Rogers Place. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Edmonton is a -185 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Oilers vs. Ducks prediction and best bet.
Oilers vs. Ducks Odds
| Market | Anaheim Ducks | Edmonton Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +154 | -185 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-162) | -1.5 (+136) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-142) | Under 6.5 (+120) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Oilers vs. Ducks Betting Preview
Edmonton Oilers Outlook
Edmonton is tied for the league lead with 4.12 goals per game, but it has scored 66 goals on just 48.0 xGoals, including 37 on 27.8 xGoals at 5v5, where it ranks T-30th in xGoals per 60 (2.02). Connor McDavid leads the NHL with 40 points, Leon Draisaitl has 13 goals on 8.6 xGoals, and Evan Bouchard has scored a whopping 6.1 more goals than expected from the blue line.
The defense has held up better than the offense by the numbers, allowing just 2.17 xGoals per 60 at 5v5 (seventh), but the penalty kill ranks T-21st at 73.9% after giving up 12 goals on 8.0 xGoals at 4-on-5. Matt Tomkins will likely get the start over Tristan Jarry, and the 32-year-old has made just one appearance since being recalled from the AHL on Oct. 23, stopping 27 of 28 shots in a 4-1 win over the Rangers on Sunday. His +1.5 GSAx ranks 23rd among 74 goaltenders and his +2.50% SV% above expected ranks first. However, he has faced a grand total of 28 shots this season, so the sample is very small, and he posted an .892 SV% and 3.33 GAA across six NHL appearances before this season.
Anaheim Ducks Outlook
Anaheim has scored at least five goals in five straight games, and its power play has been the main reason, converting a league-best 38.0% with 16 goals on 8.7 xGoals at 5-on-4. Leo Carlsson leads the Ducks with 22 points, while Cutter Gauthier leads with 10 goals and has scored 3.6 more than expected.
Anaheim ranks 29th in 5v5 xGoals against per 60 (2.88) and its .861 team SV% ranks 31st, the primary reason it sports a 3-6-1 record over its past 10 games despite all the scoring frenzies. I’d expect Lukas Dostal to draw the start tonight for the first time since allowing six goals on 33 shots against Vancouver on Oct. 27, and he enters with an .872 SV% and 3.56 GAA, with his +0.2 GSAx and +0.04% SV% above expected both ranking 30th. The Ducks have been much better on the road (5-3-0) than at home (2-4-1), as well.
Oilers vs. Ducks Prediction and Best Bet
The Ducks have scored four or more goals in eight of their 15 games, and their league-best power play draws an Edmonton penalty kill that has allowed more goals than expected. Edmonton beat this Anaheim team 5-2 on Oct. 7, but the Ducks’ offense has looked quite different across the past two weeks, and a goaltender with one start this season likely isn’t slowing it down. At plus money, I’ll back the Ducks to reach four goals.
Best Bet: Ducks Team Total Over 3.5 (+135)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
