James Madison scored touchdowns on their first three possessions against Troy. The Dukes wound up with 408 yards, five giveaways and a scoring drought that lasted the final 38:41 of regulation and their lone overtime possession. Now they go to Hattiesburg, where Southern Miss brings 554 rushing yards from two straight wins into Thursday night. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Southern Miss Golden Eagles and the James Madison Dukes.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Southern Miss vs. JMU prediction, preview
James Madison quarterback Camden Coleman threw two touchdown passes to open the game, and head coach Billy Napier turned to quarterback JC Evans for a 75-yard touchdown drive. Then Dukes receiver Michael Scott gained 43 yards on a catch and lost the ball at the Troy 24. Coleman threw two interceptions, Evans threw a pick-six on the second snap after halftime, and another receiver fumble left Troy 42 yards to go for the tying touchdown. Southern Miss has started to pry games open that way. The Golden Eagles took an interception back for a touchdown against Louisiana, then sacked ULM five times and recovered two fumbles.
With leading rusher George Pettaway out, Napier can lean on running back Seth Cromwell. He ran for 135 yards on 23 carries against Troy and finished Evans’ drive with a 14-yard touchdown. Southern Miss gave Troy a staggering 437 yards on the ground in October and held Louisiana to 118 two games later. If the Golden Eagles get to Cromwell early in a series, their rushers can make Coleman wait for his receivers to reach the sticks. The Dukes converted seven of 18 third downs against Troy. Cromwell can spare Coleman some of those long waits with a few hard yards on first down.
Southern Miss offensive coordinator Kyle Cefalo has stayed with his backs long enough for the big runs to come. Steven Robinson and Jamarice Wilder have both cleared 100 yards in consecutive games. Robinson broke a fourth-and-two for 33 yards to finish an 86-yard drive at ULM, then ripped off 42 to set up a Wilder touchdown. James Madison has allowed 116.8 rushing yards per game and held App State to 81 on 31 carries. Troy ran for 170, though, and the Dukes let the Trojans run for all 15 yards they needed on third down from their own three. Robinson and Wilder can make a missed tackle cost even more.
JMU vs. Southern Miss pick, best bet
When the Dukes get those backs on the ground early, Southern Miss quarterback Landry Lyddy has to earn more of the field himself. He needed 38 throws for 164 yards against Louisiana and went 15-for-30 for 130 at ULM. He threw his touchdown there after Golden Eagles receiver and returner Kaden Saunders brought a punt back 41 yards to the ULM 22. Southern Miss has converted just 35 of 111 third downs and allowed 22 sacks in eight games. Dukes edge defender Amar Thomas sacked Troy’s quarterback twice. He can make it awfully hard for Lyddy to string together completions if the Golden Eagles fall behind the chains.
James Madison can get into the 40s if Cromwell starts breaking tackles and the Dukes hold on to the ball. Southern Miss has enough of a rush to stall a few of those drives, and Robinson and Wilder can make James Madison wait for the ball back. I’ll take the under. The Golden Eagles can make the Dukes defend deep into a possession on the ground. I expect Thomas and that front to win enough of the passing downs Lyddy needs to finish it.
Best bet: Under 57.5 (-110).
Projected score: James Madison 34, Southern Miss 17.
Best Bet: Southern Miss vs. JMU u57.5 total points scored (-110)
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