The No. 24 Vanderbilt Commodores and Wake Forest Demon Deacons are set to face off Thursday night, going head-to-head in Nashville, Tennessee. The nonconference showdown will tip off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Vanderbilt is an 18.5-point favorite at home with -1650 moneyline odds, while Wake Forest has +950 moneyline odds. The total has been set at 155.5 points. Here is a preview of the SEC vs. ACC matchup featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Preview
Vanderbilt Preview
The Commodores let a trip to the Sweet 16 slip through their fingers last March, but it still ended up being arguably the program’s most complete season in 30-plus years. And while most of that senior-laden roster has dissipated, leading scorer Tyler Tanner is back in the fold. Coach Mark Byington also managed to reel in a few notable transfers, including forward Berke Büyüktuncel, who was on the very same Nebraska team that knocked Vanderbilt out of the NCAA tournament. He also added guard Ace Glass and forward Sebastian Williams-Adams – sophomores from Washington State and Auburn, respectively – while retaining wing Chandler Bing. On top of signing four-star freshmen Ant Brown Jr. and Ethan Mgbako, Byington also scored veteran Colorado big man Bangot Dak from the portal.
In their season opener against Bellarmine on Monday, Vanderbilt ran away with a 93-47 win. They outscored the Knights 21-0 on the fast break, 52-20 in the paint and 37-5 off turnovers. As expected, Tanner paced the Commodores with 20 points, six assists and four steals. Büyüktuncel also shined in his Vanderbilt debut, scoring 13 points without missing a single field goal or free throw. Williams-Adams was the only starter who didn’t end the night in double figures, but he still finished with nine points and nine boards.
Per the KenPom model, Vanderbilt ranks No. 9 in the nation in opponent-adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions. They rank No. 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency, slotting them in at No. 8 in adjusted net efficiency.
Wake Forest Preview
The Demon Deacons’ streak of five straight winning seasons stayed alive last year, although they still have yet to reach the NCAA tournament under coach Steve Forbes. Wake Forest went 1-1 at both the ACC tournament and NIT, all after posting their first sub-.500 conference record since 2020-21. This is basically an entirely new roster, however, with sophomore guard Isaac Carr being the only real rotation player who stuck around in Winston-Salem. And even then, he only averaged 11.3 minutes per game last season. Forbes largely rebuilt through the portal, bringing guard Justin Ray in from Monmouth, guard Kevair Kennedy over from Merrimack and forward Ring Nyeri from Northern Colorado. They also poached some bench players from power conference programs, like wing Jamari McDowell from Kansas, 7-footer Antonio Dorn from Virginia Tech and forward Justin Abson from Georgia.
Amid all the transfer portal chaos, maybe the Demon Deacons’ biggest additions came via traditional high school recruiting – twin four-star forwards Gavin and Gallagher Placide. In Wake Forest’s 83-62 win over Maryland–Eastern Shore on Monday, Gavin and Gallagher led their team in shot attempts and scored 20 and 13 points, respectively. The latter did so coming off the bench, while the former added seven rebounds, three steals, two blocks and two assists. Ray dropped 15 points on 5-of-6 shooting from the field. Kennedy was less efficient with his 3-for-7 mark, but his 12 free throw attempts gave him enough chances to finish the night with 14 points. The Merrimack transfer also flirted with a triple double with nine rebounds, eight assists and four steals.
Wake Forest actually lost the rebounding battle in their opener, on top of finishing with worse 3-point and free throw percentages than Maryland–Eastern Shore. Still, they won 31-6 off turnovers, 25-6 on the fast break and 44-22 in the paint. The Demon Deacons sit at No. 86 in the KenPom through one contest, boasting the No. 73 adjusted defense and No. 95 adjusted offense.
Vanderbilt vs. Wake Forest Pick, Best Bet
It took a 20-0 second half run for Wake Forest to pull away from Maryland–Eastern Shore earlier this week, while Vanderbilt’s blowout over Bellarmine was a 27-point game at the break and only got worse from there. Put simply, the Commodores showed they know not to play with their food. The road environment may be tough for the Placide brothers in just their second real college contest, to say nothing of their teammates who are new to the high major level. At the same time, the Bart Torvik model is only projecting Vanderbilt to win by 11.3 points – they are ranked 14 spots lower in that adjusted efficiency metric than they are in the KenPom, which can largely be attributed to small sample size and how the different models weigh predictive contributions.
So instead of picking against the spread in this early-season nonconference showdown, I think the safer play is on the point total. Both teams’ openers ended with fewer than 155.5 total points, and those came in pretty stark mismatches. With both Vandy and Wake Forest leaning defensive analytically, I think that will shine through Thursday. The Demon Deacons were already having issues from deep and from the line at home, and it’s hard to see those improving at a ranked opponent. They won’t have a 20-0 run in their favor this time around, nor will Vanderbilt be able to ride a 29-1 run like they did against Bellarmine. I expect the Commodores to win handily, but in a bit of a grittier affair with so many players still trying to find their footing and carve out roles on both sides.
