Florida Atlantic quarterback Caden Veltkamp slipped out to his left at North Texas and found receiver Easton Messer in the end zone from 27 yards out. On fourth-and-four before halftime, Veltkamp went right back to him. Messer split two defenders for another touchdown. He caught every ball Veltkamp sent his way, all 16 of them, for 189 yards. The Owls lost 48–41 with their quarterback throwing for 452 yards and five touchdowns. UTSA’s best chance of slowing those two down starts with how long the Roadrunners can hold the ball themselves. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Florida Atlantic Owls and the UTSA Roadrunners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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FAU vs. UTSA prediction, preview
Florida Atlantic has allowed 15 sacks on 338 pass attempts through eight games North Texas got to Veltkamp twice and made him pay for both. The Mean Green stripped him on second-and-12 and scored three plays later from a possession that began at the Florida Atlantic 32. In the fourth, Veltkamp threw his way out of first-and-20, then took a sack at the 35 and settled for a field goal. UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor can give those blockers a different look with linebacker Owen Pewee back at money-backer. Pewee lined up across from an interior lineman on all three of his sacks at Tulane. He forced a punt on third-and-10 and got to the quarterback twice more with the Green Wave down multiple scores. If the Owls leave Veltkamp in third-and-long, Traylor can send Pewee from inside again.
Tulane spent nearly six minutes trying to get off the field on one third-quarter drive. UTSA had already driven 72 yards for a touchdown after halftime when they got the ball back and went 63 for another. The Roadrunners worked with several short fields on a night when they forced six turnovers, and those two drives showed what they could do from their own end. Running back Will Henderson III ran for 102 yards on 15 carries, and UTSA converted 12 of 16 third downs. The Roadrunners have topped 200 rushing yards four times this season, with 277 against South Florida.
Florida Atlantic has let opponents run for a dreadful 255.1 yards per game (6.2 per carry). North Texas gained 233 and averaged nearly five a carry even with their 59-yard touchdown set aside. Messer pulled the Owls within three in the fourth. The next time Veltkamp touched the ball, Florida Atlantic trailed by ten. The Mean Green had marched 75 yards and taken more than four minutes to score. Henderson can help UTSA answer that way when the Owls need a stop.
UTSA vs. FAU pick, best bet
If Florida Atlantic brings another defender up to tackle Henderson, UTSA quarterback Owen McCown has a good back he can throw to. He threw for 359 yards against Navy and won it with a short pass to running back A’Marion Peterson, who took it 41 yards. Peterson had already turned another short catch into a 12-yard first down that night, and he ran for two touchdowns at Tulane. The Owls have plenty to tackle even when they hurry McCown into a short throw.
Veltkamp finished five touchdown drives of at least 64 yards at North Texas. Give him time for one more full possession late and he can put the seven in play. I’ll lay it with UTSA. Henderson can make the Owls spend a good part of the fourth quarter defending the run, and I like Pewee’s chances of getting Veltkamp off the field when the Owls need one more completion.
Best bet: UTSA -7 (-108).
Projected score: UTSA 45, Florida Atlantic 34.
Best Bet: UTSA -7 (-110) at FAU
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