The Calgary Flames visit the Seattle Kraken on Wednesday night, with puck drop set for 10:00 p.m. ET at Climate Pledge Arena. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Seattle is a -135 favorite on the Moneyline, while the total is set at O/U 6.5 goals.
Below, I’ll break down the matchup and provide my top Kraken vs. Flames prediction and best bet.
Kraken vs. Flames Odds
| Market | Calgary Flames | Seattle Kraken |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +114 | -135 |
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-218) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Total | Over 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-130) |
Kraken vs. Flames Betting Preview
Seattle Kraken Outlook
Seattle has been one of the league’s better finishing teams, scoring 3.57 goals per game (7th) and winning four of its six home games. However, it has done that while controlling just 41.7% of the 5v5 shot attempts, the worst Corsi% in the NHL, and generating the fewest high-danger shots (22), turning 26.3 xGoals into 38 goals at 5v5. Mackie Samoskevich (six goals on 2.1 xGoals) and Frederick Gaudreau (a team-high seven goals on 3.2 xGoals) have each scored nearly four more goals than expected, while Chandler Stephenson leads the team with 12 points. Jared McCann (lower body), who led Seattle in xGoals per 60, remains on injured reserve.
Seattle’s power play ranks 31st in xGoals per 60 at 5-on-4 (5.10), and its penalty kill has allowed 13 goals on 7.3 xGoals. Joey Daccord will likely receive the starting nod with a -3.0 GSAx that ranks 58th among 74 goaltenders and a -0.69% SV% above expected that ranks 48th. Calgary has been his best matchup thus far, though, as he has stopped 67 of 71 shots against the Flames this season.
Calgary Flames Outlook
Calgary controls 51.3% of the 5v5 shot attempts (12th) and allows the fifth-fewest high-danger shots (31), but it has scored just 23 goals on 29.3 xGoals at 5v5, and its 2.67 xGoals per 60 in all situations rank 30th, so creating quality chances is still clearly a primary team weakness. Mikael Backlund leads the team in shots (37) and xGoals per 60 (0.96) but has just two goals on 3.8 xGoals, and Yegor Sharangovich (two goals on 3.6 xGoals) has shared in those struggles, too. Joel Farabee leads the Flames with 15 points, and the power play has covered for some of the even-strength inconsistencies, converting at 30.6% (T-4th) with 11 goals on just 5.1 xGoals at 5-on-4.
The Flames have won seven of their past 10 outings and beat Seattle 6-2 last Friday, but they’ve played rather poorly on the road at 2-5-0, with every loss coming by three goals or more. Dustin Wolf is expected between the pipes with Devin Cooley (lower body) on injured reserve, and his -6.3 GSAx ranks 72nd while his -1.42% SV% above expected ranks 63rd. He has stopped 46 of 49 shots across his past two starts, both of which were wins, after allowing six goals in each of his first two starts against the Kraken.
Kraken vs. Flames Prediction and Best Bet
Seattle has scored 10.5 more goals than expected this season, while Calgary sits 2.6 below, and the Flames have the edge in shot share, high-danger chances against and power-play finishing. Wolf’s numbers combined with Calgary’s road results are my main concerns, but the underlying metrics are screaming at me to back the Flames, and +114 is a pretty fair price to take them outright.
Best Bet: Flames Moneyline (+114)
Advanced stats courtesy of MoneyPuck.
