Homestead-Miami is a 1.5-mile oval with banking that gets steeper toward the wall. The fastest line runs up against the wall as the tires wear out. Larson, Bell, and Hamlin are the only drivers who can still win the championship, and the most points after this race take the title.
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NASCAR Best Bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
Race Winner — Tyler Reddick (+650)
He’s got nothing to lose. Reddick won two O’Reilly Series championships at Homestead when everyone counted him out. He’s not being counted out this time. He’s officially out of Cup Series championship contention, so, again, he has nothing to lose at a track that requires a checkers-or-wreckers approach.
A win in 2024 came from the pole, with 97 laps led and a last-lap pass of Blaney. His other Homestead results are a third in 2023 and an eighth last year, so he has finished in the top 10 in three of his four Gen-7 starts in Miami. Over those four races at this unique intermediate track, he has averaged a running position of 9.9.
Reddick’s current form on tracks of this size is just as strong. His eight 1.5-mile races this year average a finish of 10.0, with a win at Kansas in April and a third at Las Vegas in October. He also led 119 laps in the Coca-Cola 600 and came home fourth.
This is the buried lead: The fastest way around the track is running within an inch of the wall. Reddick loves it. The only driver better at rim riding is Kyle Larson. The championship is on the line. Hendrick will not give Yung Money the green light to run the wall and chase the race win.
Race Winner — Denny Hamlin (+500)
This feels like a classic woulda-shoulda-coulda moment. Hamlin wins the season finale at Homestead and comes up just short in the NASCAR Cup Series standings. The Hamlin heartbreak continues.
A win at Las Vegas in March started a run of top-five finishes on 1.5-mile tracks. He was fourth at Kansas in April, second at Texas, third in the Coca-Cola 600, third at Kansas in September, and fifth at Charlotte in October. Seven of his eight races on 1.5-mile tracks this year ended in the top five, and his average finish of 4.6 is the best among the drivers in this field..
Homestead has been a mixed bag, with a seventh in 2022, a 30th in 2023, a third in 2024, and a fifth last year. His average running position at South Beach is 8.6 over those four races. Reddick may be better at running the wall, but that advantage has been overstated in previous Homestead races.
