After more than a decade of coming so close but yet so far, Paris Saint-Germain has come to be defined as the ultimate Champions League team. The first back-to-back winner since Real Madrid in 2015-18, PSG has the second-shortest odds to win its third straight title on June 5 in Madrid, and it currently sits atop the UCL table.
Les Parisiens have effectively secured advancement to at least the knockout playoffs, as nine points was sufficient to finish 24th in last season’s League Phase. They could become the first team to make it 12 at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) with a road date against Spanish outfit Villarreal.
Paris is a -160 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and the Yellow Submarine is +370. A draw is available at +360.
Below, I’ll break down this marquee matchup and provide my favorite bet.
Villarreal vs. Paris Saint-Germain Best Bet:
- Paris Saint-Germain Win and Both to Score (+160): Seven of PSG’s last nine games have ended in wins in which both team scored, including all three of its Champions League matches. Les Parisiens are dealing with a lot of injuries, and Nuno Mendes’ absence could hurt them in the back, but Desiré Doué, Mika Godts, and Ferran Torres provide more than enough quality up front to score multiple goals. Villarreal has been far from perfect defensively, allowing three or more goals in two of its three UCL matches.
Villarreal vs. Paris Saint-Germain prediction, pick
Les Parisiens don’t just sit atop the table; they have done it in dominant fashion. They have already played both of their Pot 1 games, defeating both Manchester City and Barcelona 4-2, and they throttled Slovan Bratislava 6-1 on the opening match day. All in all, Paris hasn’t dropped a point in any competition since losing 2-1 to Monaco in Ligue 1 on September 4, and it has since reclaimed its customary position atop the French domestic table. It has had a far better domestic performance than Villarreal, the only one of Spain’s five Champions League participants not in a qualifying position for 2027/28. The Yellow Submarine sits ninth, with tightly-fought losses to Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool in the UCL and to Real Madrid in La Liga. Villarreal is 19th in the League Phase table after three matches, thanks to its 3-1 result over Napoli.
The Yellow Submarine has a mix of young and veteran talent. Both of its top scorers in La Liga and its top assister (Pape Gueye, Georges Mikautadze, and Alberto Moleiro) are 27 or younger, but 33-year-old Ayoze Pérez, 31-year-old Nicolas Pépé, and 34-year-old Gerard Moreno have all chipped in at least two goal contributions each. Canadian Tani Oluwaseyi has barely played in La Liga, but he has two goals in the Champions League. Villarreal has produced slightly below-average chances, producing 4.31 xG in three UCL games, and it’s been a bit sloppy with its passing and has been caught offsides at an above-average rate. However, in the final third, it’s been absolutely clinical, scoring eight goals and ranking fourth in goals minus expected goals (in stark contrast to its poor finishing in La Liga). Defensively, the Yellow Submarine has given up the ninth-most xG worth of chances from the 12th-most shots in the Champions League, and it’s been poor at defending set pieces. However, it has also recorded among the most tackles, interceptions, and blocks while winning aerial duels at the ninth-highest rate. It’s pressed a ton in La Liga but not in the Champions League, and it has been fairly disciplined in both competitions. Despite conceding seven goals in two UCL games, Péter Gulácsi has been the second-best goalkeeper in La Liga by goals prevented per 90 minutes.
Of course, beating Les Parisiens will be a tall order. The defending champions will be without several attacking options, as 2025/26 Champions League Player of the Tournament Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is likely done for the season with a torn ACL and 2025 Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé, who leads the team in goal contributions in all competitions, is out with a hamstring injury. However, there may be no team in the world deeper than Paris, which still has Ferran Torres (seven goals in all competitions), Desiré Doué (eight goal contributions), Mika Godts, and Maghnes Akliouche. No team has produced more goals, shots, shots on target, or xG than Les Parisiens in either the Champions League or Ligue 1, and they’ve also scored the most goals from set pieces in both competitions. Defensively, PSG has been a little bit more gettable, conceding the 13th-most xG in the Champions League from the ninth-most total shots, but it still ranks among the leaders in tackles, interceptions, recoveries, and blocks. It has also forced the most high turnovers leading to a shot. Les Parisiens have won aerial duels at the third-lowest rate, but Nuno Mendes’ likely replacement tonight, Lucas Digne, has been solid in that aspect of the game. Goalkeeper Matvey Safonov is still a relative weakness, but he ranks fifth in Ligue 1 in goals prevented and just finished fourth in Yashin Trophy voting.
If Villarreal can keep taking advantage of its chances as well as it has in the Champions League, it could definitely put at least one past Safonov, as Les Parisiens have only kept two clean sheets this season and have significant injuries in the defense. That goal could come via header, since aerial dominance has been one of Paris’ weaknesses this season. However, the Yellow Submarine have simply allowed too many high-quality looks for attackers as good as Ferran and Doué not to take advantage. Paris might take its foot off the gas late on and allow a goal once the score is already out of hand.
