Minnesota has opened 6-0 by making opposing quarterbacks miserable whilst their own offense looks just as flattened. Detroit quarterback Jared Goff has spent his season looking serenely unbothered, throwing 14 touchdowns without an interception. Their collision at Ford Field deserves better than the old assumption that Goff disintegrates whenever Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores brings pressure. Goff has become much too good for that. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Lions vs. Vikings prediction, preview
Against blitzes through six games, Goff completed 53 of 69 passes for 605 yards and seven touchdowns. Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown gives him an immediate answer when extra defenders rush: he has commanded a target on 38% of his 68 routes against blitzes, averaging 2.84 YPRR. Fellow wideout Jameson Williams has helped stretch coverage and find zone openings, catching seven passes for 138 yards and four touchdowns across Detroit’s past two games. Goff has several ways to punish a mistaken assignment.
Flores can make identifying those assignments agonizing, though. Minnesota allowed opponents to convert only seven of 49 third downs requiring at least seven yards through six games. Detroit’s interior blockers have struggled with slanting fronts and defenders arriving through the middle. Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs, cleared after his shoulder issue, needs Detroit’s blockers to prevent those early losses. Repeatedly losing first down would leave Goff deciphering Flores’ disguises from distances where the Vikings have been merciless.
Across the field, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell has been asking an exceptional defense to compensate for an offense averaging 4.7 yards per play. Quarterback Kyler Murray’s mobility rescued a possession with a 35-yard scramble against Indianapolis, but Minnesota still scored only 16 points. Running back Aaron Jones, right tackle Brian O’Neill and guard Joe Huber have no game designation. Their availability helps; O’Connell still has to turn it into sustained, coherent offense.
Vikings vs. Lions pick, best bet
Detroit defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard found practical answers against Green Bay, rotating eight defensive backs for at least 14 snaps apiece and holding the Packers to 60 rushing yards. Lions safety Brian Branch intercepted a pass in his return. Safety Kerby Joseph remains out, however, and Minnesota tight end T.J. Hockenson can attack a defense allowing tight ends 100.3 receiving yards per game. Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson also deserves throws that let him exploit his separation. Murray has the players to make this uncomfortable.
Minnesota has protected the ball, committing only four turnovers while averaging roughly 33 minutes of possession. That can squeeze the margin and make Detroit earn every chance. I’m laying the field goal because Goff has demonstrated the pressure answers Murray’s offense is still assembling, with St. Brown available underneath and Williams punishing coverage elsewhere. Flores should force difficult possessions; Detroit has the quarterback and receivers to finish enough of them.
Best bet: Lions -3 (-120).
Projected score: Lions 24, Vikings 20.
