It’s November 1 and Week 8’s Sunday slate is upon us. After an encouraging first couple of weeks for the Raiders and the Jets, both of these teams have had to readjust their expectations for the remainder of the season so as not to get ahead of themselves. Both are capable of playing winning football, but doing so on a consistent weekly basis is difficult – it takes time to revamp the culture of a team that hasn’t been accustomed to success in recent years. Now, Las Vegas and New York square off this week in a battle between a pair of squads with plenty of hope for the future.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Raiders vs. Jets in NFL Week 8.
Raiders vs. Jets prediction, preview
The Raiders rattled off three consecutive victories to begin the first year of head coach Klint Kubiak’s tenure, but any celebration may have been premature. Since then, they’ve dropped four straight outings and are 3-4 heading into this Sunday’s action.
The positives start and end with the offense, which averages the sixth-most PPG in the NFL at 26.1 and has scored at least 26 points in five of their seven games. Brock Bowers is clearly the top option in the passing attack as the league’s best TE, amassing 455 yards and three touchdowns on 34 catches across just five games. Top WR Tre Tucker has also taken a big step up with a team-high 474 yards and four scores on 29 grabs, becoming one of the most underrated deep threats in the game. Even RB Ashton Jeanty has gotten in on the action in the passing game with 312 receiving yards and three scores on 34 catches, but he’s also run for just 328 yards and one touchdown on 106 attempts – at 3.1 YPC, there are concerns about the former first-round pick’s efficiency on the ground. If those worries weren’t enough for this offense, QB Kirk Cousins’ leash may be getting shorter despite his NFL-best 16 touchdowns with just five interceptions and 1,877 passing yards. After four straight losses, the calls to see No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza are growing ever louder. Even if Cousins still plays well, the defense may let him down. Las Vegas is conceding 28.1 PPG, 29th in the league, ranking 24th in EPA/play allowed and 30th in success rate allowed. If the Raiders can’t tighten up on that side of the ball, the wins won’t return.
Looking toward the Jets, they went through a similar start to the season but have since fallen off. They’re only 2-5 despite a Week 1 win and two quality losses against far better teams that followed it. Losing to the lowly Dolphins was a major blow last week, so they’re in need of a rebound off a low point.
The offense has regressed in terms of scoring, with the team averaging a total of just 19.6 PPG, 27th in the league. New York does rank 16th in EPA/play, though, and the 11th-ranked success rate and explosive play rate imply that there’s untapped upside in this offense. The status of RB Breece Hall (questionable; quad) is the biggest storyline for this team at the moment, especially with the trade deadline looming and backup Braelon Allen playing well – the latter has produced roughly 105 scrimmage yards per game as the starter over the last four weeks. As for the passing attack, rookie WR Omar Cooper Jr. is in the midst of a breakout after back-to-back games of 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown, stealing some of the shine from Garrett Wilson, whose 37 catches for 444 yards and three touchdowns remain team-best marks. The TE tandem of Mason Taylor and Kenyon Sadiq bring some upside, too. Plus, QB Geno Smith has played well overall with 1,623 passing yards and a 10-2 TD-INT ratio, providing more stable performances under center than this franchise has seen in recent years. Unlike the Raiders, this defense is also making plays. The Jets are giving up just 21.4 PPG, 13th in the NFL, while they rank 16th in EPA/play allowed and are third in EPA/rush allowed. They’re also second in pressure rate and fifth in time to pressure, displaying major growth from this young pass rush – though No. 2 pick David Bailey is doubtful to play with a groin issue.
Raiders vs. Jets pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Jets were a -1.5 favorite at home with -122 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Raiders were a +102 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 45.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
It’s admittedly tough to pick a winner in this one, and frankly, I consider this one of the most evenly-matched games of the Sunday slate. The Las Vegas offense is very impressive and has shown why Klint Kubiak deserved this coaching job. The floor feels very stable on that end for the Raiders, but they’ll likely be tested against this New York defense, which largely played quite well even in tougher matchups prior to the last two week. Now, losing to the Patriots in Week 6 wasn’t a huge deal, but a three-point loss to the Dolphins definitely left a bad taste in the Jets’ mouths. Could they be more energized heading into this game with pressure to bounce back mounting? Perhaps, but we can’t know that for sure.
What we do know, though, is that the Raiders’ trench play on offense has been quite good in terms of pressure rate allowed at third best, but they’ve been more vulnerable in some underlying metrics like time to throw and EPA when pressured. If New York can disrupt the pocket with its pass rush to keep Cousins off balance, that’ll be the cleanest pathway to a win. Taking away Jeanty in the run game will also prove crucial, but he hasn’t been particularly effective on the ground, so perhaps that’s an easier task than it may seem. The Jets’ offense just has to hit explosive plays in order to keep up if their own defense doesn’t hold up – the Raiders are 25th in explosive play rate allowed, for what it’s worth. What’s more encouraging for the Jets is that Las Vegas sits 30th in success rate allowed, too, so the offense may see better results at moving the chains on a down-to-down basis than usual this week.
A lot of people may be on the Raiders this week, but I actually do like the home team to hold strong and win in the end. It may be a close one, but there’s enough in the underlying profile of this Las Vegas team that New York can exploit in order to get back in the win column and surprise some folks, even if Hall doesn’t play.
