It’s finally November 1 and Week 8’s Sunday slate is upon us. The AFC North has another dogfight in store for us this afternoon when the Cleveland Browns – winning games against all odds – take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is the kind of matchup that profiles as a gritty, low-scoring affair, but that’s fairly typical for this division given the reputation of these rivalry games.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at Acrisure Stadium. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Browns vs. Steelers in NFL Week 8.
Browns vs. Steelers prediction, preview
Can you believe the Browns are 5-2 and lead the AFC North? Telling someone that before the season would’ve earned you some crazy looks, but somehow, this is the world we’re living in. Defense is the key to it all for Cleveland in year one under Todd Monken. The squad ranks 12th in opponent PPG at 20.9 and ranks 12th in EPA/play allowed as well as ninth in success rate allowed. They’re also 10th in pressure rate when it comes to the pass rush, so they’re getting into the heads of opposing quarterbacks to disrupt their rhythm. However, the Browns’ own offense isn’t nearly as inspiring. They average a meager 19.0 PPG, 28th in the league, and are just 21st in EPA/play themselves. Controlling the ball through the run game will be the key to success moving forward – Quinshon Judkins (90 CAR, 317 YDS, 3 TD) and Dylan Sampson (6 CAR, 45 YDS) are both healthy and form a nice backfield tandem moving forward. They should open things up for QB Deshaun Watson, who has thrown for 1,482 yards with a 7-3 TD-INT ratio. As things stand, rookie WRs Denzel Boston (20 REC, 372 YDS, 3 TD) and KC Concepcion (30 REC, 315 YDS) lead the team in receiving, though TE Harold Fannin Jr. has 20 grabs for 257 yards and three touchdowns, too.
The Steelers are also 5-2, but after losing to the Browns 27-24 back in Week 4, a win here is crucial if they’re to potentially compete for the division title moving forward. They’re also a defensive-minded team as per usual, ranking fifth in PPG allowed (19.7) and 13th in defensive EPA/play. They’re more effective against the pass than the run when it comes to EPA on a per-play basis, but they do rank 11th in success rate allowed and 14th in explosive play rate allowed. That solid defense lacks much of a pass rush, though, falling 30th in pressure rate. The Pittsburgh offense is far from excellent with the 26th-ranked EPA/play and just 21.9 PPG, 22nd in the league, but the unit does enough to win games more often than not. Aaron Rodgers has turned back the clock at times under center with 1,699 yards and a 13-5 TD-INT ratio, with WRs DK Metcalf (32 REC, 374 YDS, 1 TD) and Germie Bernard (27 REC, 254 YDS, 1 TD) as his primary options in the passing attack. However, it’s RB Jaylen Warren who truly stands out – he has 561 rushing yards and one touchdown on the ground while running at 5.5 YPC, adding 294 yards and one more score on 24 receptions. He’s helped power this rushing attack to eighth in EPA/rush, with Rico Dowdle rejoining the backfield two weeks ago following his return from injury.
Browns vs. Steelers pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Steelers were a -3.5 favorite at home with -192 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Browns were a +160 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 38.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This game has all the makings of your usual AFC North rock fight. Both of the defenses are good-to-great at their best, the offenses are underwhelming on the whole, and there’s a slight chill in the air at what should be a packed stadium full of rowdy hometown fans. While Cleveland got the upper hand in the first matchup, it was just a three-point win and both teams were virtually even when it come to total yardage (372 for the Browns; 361 for the Steelers). The rematch shifts the venue to Pittsburgh and we’ve seen more of what both these teams are capable of over the three games since then.
With the Steelers playing at home and Dowdle back in the picture for an offense that has largely played better than that of the Browns this season – even if neither are particularly high achievers – I do think they flip the script to win this matchup. This is practically a coin flip of a game, but it just feels like the Browns are fraudulent. They’re riding the coattails of the defense at the moment, which itself is somewhat exploitable if you can hit big plays against them since they rank 29th in explosive play rate allowed. At some point, the chickens will come home to roost and they’ll have to put some points on the scoreboard themselves, but they’re not doing that on a consistent basis yet. Pittsburgh should have a better feel for how to stop them, so I feel pretty confident in an alt line for this one that favors the Steelers by a field goal or better.
