It’s November 1 and Week 8’s Sunday slate is upon us. Out in the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts are having a full-on fire sale as trade talks swirl around much of their roster in a lost season. They’re a weak opponent that now hits the road and heads to Jacksonville to take on the division-leading Jaguars, who are coming off the bye week and should be well-rested for this matchup.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at EverBank Stadium. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Colts vs. Jaguars in NFL Week 8.
Colts vs. Jaguars prediction, preview
The Colts were supposed to be in the mix for the AFC South title this season with Daniel Jones recovered from last season’s Achilles tear and back in the mix to helm an offense that was one of the league’s best when he was healthy last year. Instead, he’s looked nothing like his old self, completing just 59.6% of his passes for 1,398 yards and a 4-7 TD-INT ratio. The offense ranks 29th in EPA/dropback, and now, WR Josh Downs has requested a trade amidst a season with 26 receptions for a team-high 307 receiving yards. Star TE Tyler Warren is set to play after missing a couple of games due to injury, but even he is unlikely to revive this passing attack. Were it not for the heroic efforts of RB Jonathan Taylor, who has 587 rushing yards with eight touchdowns, this attack would largely be hapless. He may see less work this week as the team likely tries to protect his health for a potential trade since he’s the prize of the market at the moment, which could open up chances for rookie Seth McGowan in the backfield. Still, the run game could take a hit after trading away All-Pro OL Quenton Nelson, and the offense averages just 22.0 PPG to begin with – 20th in the league – and ranks 27th in EPA/play. The defense is also rather poor, conceding 25.7 PPG, good for 23rd. To make matters worse, they just traded away DT DeForest Buckner, further weakening a front seven that falls 28th in EPA/rush allowed.
The Jaguars find themselves in far better shape entering Week 8. They’re coming off the bye following two games in London, holding a 4-2 record that has them firmly in the driver’s seat amongst the AFC South. This is clearly a very good football team on both sides of the ball. The defense may actually be better than the offense, limiting opponents to just 17.3 PPG, third fewest across the NFL. Jacksonville completely shuts down the run at first in EPA/rush allowed and rushing yards allowed per game (72.17), so that’s a huge boon against a player like the aforementioned Jonathan Taylor. They’re also eighth in pressure rate, too. As for the offense, there’s plenty to like there, too. The Jags average 25.7 PPG, eighth most, and are third in EPA/play as well as top seven or better in EPA/rush and EPA/dropback. Trevor Lawrence is dealing under center, throwing for 1,480 yards with 14 touchdowns to four picks. Parker Washington has ascended to WR1 status with 26 receptions for 416 yards and four scores, though fellow WR Jakobi Meyers (questionable; hamstring/ankle) has 285 yards with a pair of scores and TE Brenton Strange has 279 yards and one touchdown. The passing attack spreads the ball around plenty, but the run game is starting to consolidate around RB Bhayshul Tuten, who’s run for 388 yards and two touchdowns on his 94 carries while catching two more TDs. Pick your poison – the Jaguars are going to score one way or another.
Colts vs. Jaguars pick, best bet
At the time this article was written, the Jaguars were a -10 favorite at home with -500 odds to win on the Moneyline; the Colts were a +380 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 46.5 combined points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This game shouldn’t even be close, frankly. Yes, that 10-point spread is pretty wide, but it’s probably not even enough given the state of these rosters. Indianapolis is in full-on rebuild mode, trading two franchise icons this past week and actively shopping another, who happens to be the centerpiece of their entire offense. It’s a little difficult to project the kind of workload Taylor will handle – he’s healthy, but has an O/U of just 14.5 rush attempts in the prop market – since an injury could seriously derail his value in a deal. A downtick is certainly reasonable, though, which further hurts an already-struggling Colts offense. They’re not able to score like the Jags can to begin with, but the Jacksonville defense is truly elite in multiple areas and further limits the upside for Indy.
With the Colts one of the worst in the league at defending the run and Lawrence playing at a high level as well, the Jaguars’ offense should blow this game open as the defense dominates in a blowout win to really reinforce their opponent’s need to hit the reset button.
