Central Division foes will tip-off tonight in Milwaukee. The Cavaliers (3-2) are eyeing a trip to the Finals. Winners in three of its last four games, it’s been a decent start to the season for Cleveland. It’s a far different story for the rebuilding Bucks (1-4), one of the NBA’s least talented clubs on paper. Can the home team pull off a major upset this evening?
The Cavaliers enter today’s matchup as 9.5-point favorites, with the total set at 235.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Saturday’s Cleveland vs. Milwaukee contest.
Cavaliers vs. Bucks prediction, preview
There’s no denying the talent level scattered across Cleveland’s roster. Four different members of the team’s starting five have been named to an All-Star game at some point in their careers. The undisputed leader of this squad is Donovan Mitchell, still just as effective at 30 years old. Through five games, he’s averaging 24.2 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. Back court partner James Harden has been a bit shakier to start. The Beard is only putting up 17.4 points per game on mediocre 36/31/83 shooting splits. Still, it’s likely just a matter of time until the future Hall of Famer gets into the swing of things. Even when the shot isn’t falling, Harden remains an elite distributor.
Defensively, the Cavaliers rely heavily on the front court duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. However, the team’s front office made a key addition this summer in former Nuggets wing Peyton Watson. The versatile forward has the ability to guard almost any position on the court. His offensive game hasn’t turned heads this season (12.0 PPG, 37.5 FG%), but he’s not asked to do much on that end of the court. Still, it’s fair to say this group hasn’t been the stingiest so far. Cleveland’s 113.3 defensive rating is only good enough for 17th in basketball. However, the big men have done their job when it comes to rim protection. The Cavs are averaging 7.5 blocks per game, best in the NBA.
There isn’t too much to get excited about in Milwaukee. Granted, the franchise got a few notable pieces back from Miami during this summer’s Giannis Antetokounmpo blockbuster. That includes Tyler Herro, now the de facto number one option for the Bucks. A former All-Star, the guard averaged 20.5 points per game last season with the Heat. Elsewhere, intriguing youngsters in Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware and Ryan Rollins should give fans some hope going forward. Myles Turner is still in town, offering much-needed stability at center.
While the Bucks are close to a league-average offense, this group can’t seem to stop anyone. Their 120.2 defensive rating is fourth-worst in the association this season. Opponents have scored 128 points or more in four of five matchups with Milwaukee. The league’s fourth-quickest pace on offense (103.3) hasn’t helped matters on the other end of the floor either. One area where this squad has really struggled is applying pressure; the Bucks are forcing the NBA’s third-fewest turnovers per game (12.6).
Best Bet: Cavaliers -9.5 (-112)
The Bucks have already lost by seven or more points to middling clubs in Chicago and Washington. Their only win came against the injury-depleted Pacers on Monday. In comparison, this is a far more experienced and dangerous Cleveland roster. Dominant defense inside the paint could force Milwaukee into a one-dimensional, perimeter-heavy offense as well. Even on the road, I’m expecting a double-digit Cavaliers win.
