Happy Halloween! Below is my full betting slip for college football today, with some notes on what I’d risk, some quick analyses—I have full previews of most all games listed publishing throughout the day for more in-depth breakdowns and matchup analysis.
Follow my handle @dansby_edits for all preseason and fantasy draft kit content—as well as plenty of NFL betting goodies—all season long.
Dan Johnson’s full Week 9 Saturday College Football betslip
12:00 p.m.
Notre Dame vs. Navy
Best bet: Over 56.5 (-108) | Stake: 0.5U
Against Navy’s coverage, Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr ought to enjoy himself. The Midshipmen just conceded 359 passing yards to UTSA and 305 to North Texas (Navy: +0.41 EPA allowed per dropback); back Jonaz Walton rushed for 181 against Stanford. I’ll be following Carr with next spring’s NFL draft in mind. Navy quarterback Jackson Gutierrez has been making defenders chase him: 228 rushing yards against North Texas as the Midshipmen finished four touchdown drives of at least 75 yards, after finding tight end Jordan Collins for two scores at UTSA. Notre Dame held Rice’s option to 64 rushing yards and should restrict Gutierrez (Notre Dame: 33.9% rushing success allowed). But linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa and defensive end Loghan Thomas are questionable; Navy could find more room if they miss out. I expect Carr’s offense in the 40s, with enough from Gutierrez to favor over 56.5 rather than laying 30.5 at Gillette Stadium.
Projected score: Notre Dame 45, Navy 20.
Arizona at Texas Tech
Best bet: Arizona +3.5 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Isaiah Mizell have become a nasty assignment. After catching passes for 183 yards against West Virginia, Mizell gained 134 against Iowa State, where Fifita completed 27 of 34 throws (Arizona: +0.36 EPA per dropback; 53.9% passing success). Arizona allowed one sack in each game and sustained four touchdown possessions of at least 75 yards against the Cyclones. Texas Tech can hurt the Wildcats on handoffs: back J’Koby Williams has broken runs of 62, 38 and 42 yards over two games, and Arizona surrendered 303 rushing yards to West Virginia. The Wildcats also lose cornerback Jay’Vion Cole. At Cincinnati, Tech converted just three of 15 third downs and finally scored an offensive touchdown in the last minute. While coach Joey McGuire plans substantial work for quarterbacks Will Hammond and Thomas Castellanos, I’m backing Fifita’s established passing with the field goal and the hook.
Projected score: Arizona 31, Texas Tech 30.
Illinois at Maryland
Best bet: Illinois -2.5 (-115) | Stake: 1U
Illinois running back Aidan Laughery tore through Oregon for a 75-yard touchdown, offering welcome relief to an offense that punted eight times. Coach Bret Bielema can put Laughery and fellow back Jordan Anderson straight to work against Maryland, whose defenders conceded consecutive 200-yard rushing afternoons (Maryland: +0.12 EPA allowed per rush) before letting Rutgers convert nine of 14 third downs. Freshman quarterback Michael Clayton II needs those handoffs in his first road start. Replacing injured starter Katin Houser, he threw for just 84 yards against Oregon. Maryland quarterback Malik Washington can strike back through receiver Chris Durr Jr., who caught six passes for 104 yards against Rutgers. Illinois let Oregon gain 426 yards and benefited from three missed field goals; Washington should get his own chances to score. Laughery and Anderson can give Clayton the steadier help against a defense still struggling to end possessions.
Projected score: Illinois 27, Maryland 23.
Wisconsin at Iowa
Best bet: Under 36.5 (-112) | Stake: 1U
For all his accuracy against USC, Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph barely advanced the offense through the air: 12 completions on 14 throws for 58 yards. His runners carried the offense; now his blockers may reshuffle with right guard Barrett Nelson doubtful, against an Iowa front that held Minnesota to 72 rushing yards (Iowa: 35.8% rushing success allowed). Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz starts quarterback Hank Brown without injured back Kamari Moulton, who punished Washington for 208 yards. Wisconsin just sacked USC five times and held the Trojans to minus 18 net rushing yards (Wisconsin: −0.13 EPA allowed per dropback). Iowa receiver Reece VanderZee can hurt them deeper—he caught a 37-yard touchdown on a 98-yard drive at Minnesota. Wisconsin also finished three touchdown possessions covering at least 59 yards against USC. Joseph and Brown should have to throw their way out of long yardage. I’m under 36.5.
Projected score: Iowa 17, Wisconsin 14.
12:45 p.m.
Auburn at Ole Miss
Best bet: Auburn +11.5 (-110) | Stake: 0.5U
Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown ran Georgia ragged, then spent the following Saturday trying to survive LSU’s rush. The Tigers have allowed 12 sacks across those games, and coach Alex Golesh’s proposed protection changes remain unproven. Brown still rushed for 115 yards at Georgia as Auburn sustained three touchdown drives of at least 64 yards. Against Ole Miss, who just conceded 207 rushing yards to Texas (Ole Miss: +0.10 EPA allowed per rush), Brown and back Jeremiah Cobb can make the Rebels tackle runners again. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss should punish Auburn through his receivers after LSU passed for 388 yards against the Tigers. He also threw three interceptions at Texas, and injured back Kewan Lacy leaves fellow back Makhi Frazier carrying more of the rushing load. Brown has already sustained touchdowns through formidable pressure. I’ll take the 11.5 with his running, even if the blockers make his passing another ordeal.
Projected score: Ole Miss 31, Auburn 23.
3:15 p.m.
Stanford at Louisville
Best bet: Stanford +22.5 (-110) | Stake: 1U
Stanford quarterback Davis Warren has begun making the Cardinal a pleasure to watch. He threw four touchdowns without an interception against NC State, finishing four touchdown possessions of at least 84 yards. Back Micah Ford ran for 150 yards and caught passes for another 58. Louisville can make that improvement look fragile again: quarterback Lincoln Kienholz and back Isaac Brown have scored on runs of 82 and 97 yards, respectively (Louisville: +0.20 EPA per rush), while the Cardinals have sacked their last two opponents nine times. Stanford lost their first three road games by a combined 150–17. With his blockers allowing one sack in each of two wins, Warren returns to the road better supported—and gets coverage that conceded 339 passing yards at Syracuse (Louisville: +0.14 EPA allowed per dropback). Louisville should score freely; Warren and Ford can hit back often enough to cover 22.5.
Projected score: Louisville 38, Stanford 24.
3:30 p.m.
Florida vs. Georgia
Best bet: Florida +12.5 (-112) | Stake: 0.5U
As a Gators fan, I’m thrilled Florida plans to start quarterback Aaron Philo in Atlanta after his shoulder injury. Before missing the Texas win, Philo found receiver Bailey Stockton eight times for 127 yards against South Carolina (Florida: +0.31 EPA per dropback). Georgia can make his return painful: the Bulldogs sacked Alabama four times and Auburn five. Jadan Baugh—the best player on the planet, naturally—has to spare Philo some obvious passing downs after grinding out 91 yards on 25 carries at Texas. I’ll miss him if he enters the NFL draft. Florida recorded five sacks at Texas, though South Carolina had converted ten of 16 third downs against the Gators (Florida: 49.5% success allowed). Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton completed 18 of 22 throws for 249 yards at Alabama, then spoiled his offense with three turnovers against Auburn. Philo can make Georgia defend farther downfield, with Baugh helping finish. I’ll take the Gators at +12.5.
Projected score: Georgia 31, Florida 24.
Arizona State at BYU
Best bet: Arizona State +16.5 (-112) | Stake: 0.5U
Arizona State back Cardae Mack was magnificent against Kansas State, scoring all four touchdowns and finishing drives of 77, 55, 71 and 65 yards. Coach Kenny Dillingham may need that resourcefulness again with freshman quarterback Jake Fette in line to start if quarterback Mikey Keene cannot play. Fette completed three of six relief throws; Arizona State has allowed ten sacks over two games and loses right guard Tana Alo-Tupuola. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier led three regulation touchdown drives of at least 75 yards at UCF; receiver Kyler Kasper caught six passes for 129 yards. UCF answered with 170 rushing yards, 293 passing and nine conversions on 16 third downs (BYU: 44.2% rushing success allowed; +0.09 EPA allowed per dropback). Mack and receiver Reed Harris, who gained 147 yards against Kansas State, can punish those defensive failures. BYU still misses back LJ Martin. I’m taking 16.5 against a favorite struggling to defend full possessions.
Projected score: BYU 31, Arizona State 20.
Minnesota at Indiana
Best bet: Under 40.5 (-102) | Stake: 1U
Even while winning back Floyd of Rosedale, Minnesota scraped together 209 yards and converted a wretched two of 14 third downs. Back Darius Taylor gained 20 yards on 12 carries against Iowa; now he meets an Indiana front that held Nebraska, Ohio State and Michigan below 80 rushing yards apiece (Indiana: 36.6% rushing success allowed; −0.11 EPA allowed per rush). Quarterback Drake Lindsey gets another difficult passing assignment behind a line missing center Ashton Beers. Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover is probable with his throwing shoulder still troubling him. He managed 81 passing yards at Michigan, but receiver Charlie Becker caught nine passes for 165 against Ohio State. Indiana can throw better if Hoover’s shoulder improves; Minnesota also let Purdue rush for 305 yards. The Hoosiers needed overtime for their only Michigan touchdown, though. Their front can strand Lindsey often enough to hold this below 40.5.
Projected score: Indiana 27, Minnesota 10.
3:45 p.m.
Utah at Cincinnati
Best bet: Cincinnati +7 (-108) | Stake: 1U
Unbeaten Utah has to tackle Cincinnati back Cole Tabb after he ripped Texas Tech for 173 yards on 16 carries (Cincinnati: +0.16 EPA per rush). Quarterback JC French IV threw four touchdowns as Cincinnati sustained five touchdown drives of at least 55 yards (Cincinnati: +0.17 EPA per dropback). That’s a lively offense to give a full touchdown. Utah quarterback Devon Dampier can make the Bearcats miserable in return: Houston’s attention to back Wayshawn Parker helped him rush for 150 yards and two scores. Cincinnati let West Virginia throw for 464 yards, so French can’t afford to squander his own possessions. He threw two interceptions against Tech. Dampier has thrown four over two games himself, and Utah missed a field goal after driving 76 yards against Houston. French and Tabb have been finishing enough long possessions to punish Utah for that carelessness.
Projected score: Utah 28, Cincinnati 24.
7:00 p.m.
Washington State at San Diego State
Best bet: San Diego State -2.5 (-115) | Stake: 1U
At Colorado State, San Diego State quarterback Stone Saunders repeatedly recovered from mistakes to march the full field, throwing for 369 yards. The Aztecs traveled at least 73 yards for each of six touchdowns, their last coming on a 16-play, 99-yard drive. Backs Lucky Sutton and Javion Kinnard supplied 192 rushing yards behind blockers who allowed one sack. Washington State quarterback Owen Eshelman could use such help: Boise sacked him four times while his tailbacks gained 20 yards on ten carries. San Diego State’s defenders were far too obliging, letting Colorado State convert nine of 12 third downs (San Diego State: 53.0% passing success allowed). Eshelman, who threw for 289 yards and rushed for 136 at Oregon State, can hurt that defense himself. Saunders gets receiver Jaylon Hawkins, who just gained 164 yards, alongside those productive backs. I’ll lay 2.5 with Saunders’ rushing support and steadier protection.
Projected score: San Diego State 31, Washington State 24.
7:30 p.m.
Mississippi State at Texas
Best bet: Under 50.5 (-105) | Stake: 1U
Without left tackle Trevor Goosby, Texas quarterback Arch Manning has another protection problem after enduring seven sacks over two games. Back Raleek Brown finally gave him some rushing help, tearing through Ole Miss for 157 yards. Mississippi State’s depleted defense offers him another inviting rushing matchup. Texas still converted three of 13 third downs after two of ten at Florida. State coach Jeff Lebby hasn’t announced whether quarterback Parker Puckett or AJ Swann replaces injured quarterback Kamario Taylor, and left guard DJ Chester is out. The Bulldogs converted one of 11 third downs against Oklahoma. Back Fluff Bothwell nevertheless rushed for 111 yards there; with Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons doubtful, Bothwell can help the Bulldogs earn first downs on the ground (Texas: 36.5% rushing success allowed). I favor Texas’ backs to win this, but Manning’s difficult passing downs leave me preferring under 50.5 to laying 20.5.
Projected score: Texas 31, Mississippi State 13.
Georgia Tech at Pitt
Best bet: Georgia Tech +8.5 (-112) | Stake: 0.5U
Georgia Tech coach Brent Key watched Boston College rush for 399 yards (Georgia Tech: +0.17 EPA allowed per rush). There’s no graceful way to describe defending that badly. Pitt should hand off repeatedly to back Damon Ferguson Jr., now off the injury report, while quarterback Holden Geriner looks for receiver Cataurus Hicks. Hicks followed 135 receiving yards at Boston College with 149 at Miami. The Panthers still punted on their first four Miami possessions; a week earlier, they settled for four field goals. Georgia Tech quarterback Alberto Mendoza gets to attack defenders who just let Miami pass for 387 yards and convert ten of 15 third downs (Pitt: +0.17 EPA allowed per dropback). Receivers Jordan Allen and Dalen Penson can help Mendoza answer despite his own third-down failures. Pitt should run well enough to win; I’ll take 8.5 against coverage playing this badly.
Projected score: Pitt 31, Georgia Tech 27.
Miami at North Carolina
Best bet: Over 53.5 (-108) | Stake: 0.5U
North Carolina has to cover Miami receiver Malachi Toney without cornerback Tre Miller. Toney was outrageous against Pitt—16 catches, 194 yards, three touchdowns—with quarterback Darian Mensah hitting 31 of 37 throws (Miami: +0.47 EPA per dropback; 58.6% passing success). Miami drove at least 75 yards for three touchdowns; the Hurricanes also benefited from short fields on other possessions. UNC just let Syracuse rush for 199 yards, too; Miami backs Javian Mallory and Mark Fletcher Jr. can make those defenders chase runners. Tar Heels quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. can answer through receiver Jordan Shipp and tight end Jelani Thurman, who combined for 179 yards against Syracuse. Miami let Florida State throw for 305 yards (Miami: +0.13 EPA allowed per dropback); their depleted secondary now gets Shipp and Thurman. UNC’s questionable left tackle and guard could leave Edwards hurrying; Miami must protect without right guard Max Buchanan. I expect Toney to hurt another secondary and Edwards’ receivers to answer. Over 53.5.
Projected score: Miami 38, North Carolina 23.
Ohio State at USC
Best bet: Under 51.5 (-112) | Stake: 0.5U
In Los Angeles, Ohio State coach Ryan Day still hasn’t said which quarterback—Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair—will replace Julian Sayin. Both could play. Indiana sacked the Buckeyes four times and held running back Bo Jackson to 56 yards on 18 carries; fellow back Ja’Kobi Jackson is out following foot surgery. USC defensive tackles Jahkeem Stewart and Jamaal Jarrett are questionable, so Bo could recover some running room if they sit. Receiver Jeremiah Smith has me thinking about next spring’s NFL draft; he can wreck an under on a few catches. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava burned Penn State for 301 yards and three touchdowns, but Wisconsin just sacked him five times and held running back King Miller to seven yards on 11 carries. Ohio State’s front can force those difficult passing downs again (Ohio State: −0.14 EPA allowed per dropback; 32.9% passing success allowed). I prefer under 51.5 to picking a road margin with a new starter.
Projected score: Ohio State 27, USC 20.
8:00 p.m.
Washington at Nebraska
Best bet: Under 49.5 (-105) | Stake: 1U
Washington coach Jedd Fisch still hasn’t announced whether quarterback Demond Williams Jr. or Elijah Brown starts, and he has to replace injured center Landen Hatchett for the rest of the season. Williams is probable; back Trey Cooley remains questionable. Brown threw for 302 yards and three touchdowns at Purdue, with receivers Chris Lawson and Dezmen Roebuck able to threaten Nebraska without injured safety Jamir Conn. Cornhuskers quarterback Anthony Colandrea can answer against a Washington front that let Iowa rush for 263 yards. He has taken nine sacks over two games himself, though, and now loses lineman Gunnar Gottula. Nebraska held Oregon to three conversions on 17 third downs (Nebraska: −0.20 EPA allowed per dropback; 35.0% passing success allowed). Their front can test Washington’s new center while Colandrea works through yet another line change.
Projected score: Nebraska 24, Washington 20.
10:00 p.m.
Texas State at Boise State
Best bet: Under 63.5 (-105) | Stake: 1U
Boise State back Dylan Riley has ripped off touchdown runs of at least 72 yards in consecutive games. I’m curious how NFL teams will value Riley’s breakaway running. Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson and back Torrance Burgess Jr. ran all over Colorado State for a combined 405 yards. Utah State made Jackson’s next afternoon a slog: he threw for 167 yards on 37 attempts (Utah State: −0.05 EPA allowed per dropback) as the Bobcats allowed four sacks and scored one offensive touchdown. They scored their other touchdown on a kickoff return. Boise just sacked Washington State four times and held the Cougars’ tailbacks to 20 yards on ten carries. Jackson gets another front capable of interrupting him (Boise State: 38.9% passing success allowed). Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen led four touchdown drives of at least 75 yards at Fresno State, but Boise scored ten points through three quarters at Washington State.
Projected score: Boise State 34, Texas State 24.
10:30 p.m.
Northern Illinois at UNLV
Best bet: Over 54.5 (-105) | Stake: 0.5U
After letting consecutive opponents gain more than 500 yards, Northern Illinois now has to tackle UNLV quarterback Jackson Arnold and back Jai’Den Thomas (NIU: +0.22 EPA allowed per rush). Arnold rushed for 78 yards at Air Force, where the Rebels finished four touchdown drives of at least 75 yards. Receiver Kayden McGee is questionable alongside other pass catchers and blockers; Arnold may have to throw without several regulars. Arnold also misfired badly against North Dakota State, winning without an offensive touchdown. Northern Illinois quarterback Taron Dickens gets receiver DeAree Rogers, who caught eight passes for 115 yards and two scores against Hawai‘i. Back Telly Johnson Jr. can run at UNLV’s defenders after their tackling failed against Air Force’s option runners (UNLV: 47.7% rushing success allowed). The Huskies turned the ball over five times last week and can spoil their own scoring again. Arnold and Johnson still get vulnerable fronts to run at. Over 54.5, for half a unit.
