The TCU Horned Frogs will host the Kansas Jayhawks on Saturday, pitting two 3-4 Big 12 teams against each other in Fort Worth. While the Horned Frogs are coming off a home loss, the Jayhawks are fresh off their first conference win of the season.
TCU is a 6.5-point home favorite on Saturday, while Kansas is +195 to spring the outright upset. The game total for the Big 12 showdown is set at 45.5 points. Here is a preview of the Week 9 contest featuring odds and lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks Preview
TCU
The Horned Frogs have already matched their number of losses from 2024 and 2025, as they finished both of those seasons 9-4. As a result of their 1-4 record against Power Conference programs in 2026, Sonny Dykes might just be on the hot seat. TCU’s 15-10 loss to North Carolina in Ireland has proven to be more predictive than their 63-7 win over Grambling State and their 31-7 victory against Arkansas State. The Horned Frogs haven’t reached 21 points in the four games since, for one. Still, all four of their losses this year have come by one score or less.
Quarterback Jaden Craig has attempted more passes than anyone else in the Big 12, completing 67.5% of them for 2,066 yards, 11 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 149.9 passer rating. The Harvard transfer also added his first rushing touchdown of the season last week against West Virginia. Wide receiver Ed Small and tight end Nacari Ashley have been Craig’s top two targets, as both have 35-plus catches, 500-plus yards and multiple touchdowns. Jordan Dwyer has also returned from injury, totaling 263 yards on 16 grabs over the last two weeks alone.
Jeremy Payne was TCU’s leading rusher with 426 yards through five games, but he got hurt early against Baylor and hasn’t played since. With Payne out again Saturday, Jon Denman will take over lead back duties again. The sophomore is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry in 2026, sitting at 148 yards and two touchdowns on the season. He turned 15 carries and one catch into 73 total yards in Payne’s absence last week.
While TCU’s offense sits at 57th in total offense, they are all the way down at 101st in points per game. That can partially be attributed to their 12 giveaways, which make them one of the 25 most turnover prone teams in the country. On the other side of the ball, the Horned Frogs rank sixth in both total defense and scoring defense. In the opponent-adjusted efficiency metric SP+, TCU boasts the 13th-ranked defense, 84th-ranked offense and 91st-ranked special teams, putting them at 41st overall.
Kansas
The Jayhawks have beaten up on inferior competition this season, stomping LIU 51-6 in Week 1 and Middle Tennessee State 55-0 in Week 5. In between those wins, however, were a 38-21 loss to No. 23 Missouri and a 24-17 loss to Arizona State. Coming out of the MTSU victory, Kansas lost 41-24 at No. 12 Utah and 35-24 at Kansas State. They finally got a real win over Baylor in Lawrence, prompting the Bears to fire Dave Aranda the very next day.
Quarterback Isaiah Marshall, who passed for two touchdowns and rushed for one more against Baylor, is a game-time decision Saturday after getting downgraded to questionable on Friday. Marshall is completing 53.6% of his passes for 1,506 yards, 11 touchdowns, a Big 12-leading seven picks and a 129.5 passer rating. On the ground, the sophomore has 403 yards and two touchdowns under his belt. If Marshall can’t go, Cole Ballard will be the Jayhawks’ quarterback. The redshirt junior has attempted 72 passes with three touchdowns and four interceptions across four collegiate seasons, but his 223 rushing yards on 41 attempts show potential for dual-threat production of his own.
Cole Ballard has proven to be an effective running back all on his own, totaling 701 yards and five touchdowns from scrimmage through seven games. But Colorado State transfer Jalen Dupree hasn’t done much as Ballard’s backup in recent weeks, despite Syracuse transfer Yasin Willis undergoing season-ending foot surgery. Nik McMillan leads the way through the air with 466 yards and five touchdowns on 25 catches. Cam Pickett ranks second with 21 receptions, but MTSU transfer Nahzae Cox has turned his 10 grabs into 259 yards and two scores.
Kansas’ defense – led by defensive end Leroy Harris III’s 11.0 TFL, five pass deflections and conference-leading three forced fumbles – checks in at 61st in total defense and 68th in scoring defense. And while their pass defense ranks 31st in passing yards against and 33rd in completion percentage against, they once again rank 68th in passer rating against. Running a top-20 rushing offense, meanwhile, gives the Jayhawks the 27th-best total offense in the nation. In SP+, Kansas ranks 58th on defense, 61st on offense and 33rd on special teams – good for the 60th overall ranking.
TCU vs. Kansas Pick, Best Bet
None of the Jayhawks’ four losses this season have come by less than a touchdown, while the Horned Frogs did at least win by double-digits in their lone conference victory. It’s also worth looking at the teams’ only common opponent – Baylor. Both teams beat the Bears, but Kansas only did so by one point in Lawrence. TCU, meanwhile, won by 11 in Waco. The SP+ model also has the Horned Frogs projected to win 28-19. That nine-point projected margin of victory is twice as large as the spread, plus it is under the pretense that Marshall suits up.
Taking the Horned Frogs by at least a touchdown is attractive regardless of Marshall’s status, although the under on 47.5 total points could be worth a play if the Jayhawks are without their starting quarterback.
