Florida quarterback Aaron Philo is expected to start against Georgia after a shoulder injury, giving the Gators a chance to recover some badly needed passing ambition. Before missing the Texas win, he completed 21 of 28 throws for 227 yards against South Carolina. Coach Jon Sumrall gets a passer who has already found his receivers for substantial gains, although Philo and backup quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. remain questionable for the The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party meeting at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Florida Gators.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Georgia vs. Florida prediction, preview
Philo found receiver Bailey Stockton eight times for 127 yards and a 59-yard touchdown against South Carolina, while wideout Dallas Wilson caught eight more. Florida threw effectively even during that dispiriting loss. Against Georgia, Philo will need his blockers to give him time to find both: the Bulldogs sacked Alabama four times and Auburn five. Offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner has a shoulder to protect along with the passing game he hopes to revive.
Running back Jadan Baugh can make that protection less demanding if Florida establishes him early. He ground out 91 yards on 25 carries against Texas after managing only 59 on 15 against South Carolina. The Gators converted eight of 19 third downs and both fourth-down attempts at Texas, while Jones needed 35 throws to pass for 155 yards. Tight end Lacota Dippre caught both touchdown passes. Florida persevered near the goal line; Philo can make the passing between those visits more threatening.
Georgia coach Kirby Smart can still ruin the afternoon by forcing Florida to abandon Baugh. Auburn rushed for 192 yards against the Bulldogs, but quarterback Byrum Brown gained 115 himself. Baugh must sustain his own success on handoffs. Faulkner has explained how falling behind and failing to run at Missouri stripped Florida of their preferred play-action and bootleg opportunities. Philo’s return gets much harder if Georgia forces him into long passing downs, with that shoulder still uncertain.
Florida vs. Georgia pick, best bet
Bulldogs quarterback Gunner Stockton can put Florida in precisely that predicament. He completed 18 of 22 passes for 249 yards at Alabama, then threw for 272 against Auburn. Wideout Craig Dandridge caught four passes for 88 in the latter game, while tight end Lawson Luckie caught a 24-yard touchdown. Running back Dwight Phillips Jr. rushed for 120 yards at Alabama. Florida has to tackle him while Stockton attacks their coverage farther downfield.
Florida sacked Texas five times and held the Longhorns to two conversions on ten third downs. They also let South Carolina convert ten of 16, which leaves Stockton room to sustain scoring despite some difficult possessions. He threw two interceptions and lost a late fumble against Auburn, so Georgia has their own mistakes to repair after the bye. I favor the Bulldogs’ offense, but Philo can give Florida enough passing to make this close. I’m taking the Gators at +11.5.
Best bet: Florida +11.5 (-108).
Projected score: Georgia 31, Florida 24.
Best Bet: Florida +11.5 (-110) vs. Georgia
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