History will be set on Halloween. For the first time in WNBA history, we get a Game 7 of the Finals. With their backs against the wall at home, the Atlanta Dream came out firing on Thursday and never looked back en route to forcing a deciding game against the Golden State Valkyries. Now, the series returns to San Francisco with both franchises looking for a first title in team history. Who will go home happy in this winner-take-all showdown?
The Valkyries enter as 1.5-point home favorites with the game total set at 142.5 points at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Valkyries vs. Dream Preview
For the first time in a series, one of these offenses got scorching hot. The Atlanta Dream kicked off Game 6 with a sizzling 11-for-15 shooting mark in the first quarter, including six of eight from beyond the arc. Most importantly, nine of those 11 field goals were assisted. Atlanta got downhill into the paint and found their open shooters on the wing; it’s the kind of simple playmaking you don’t see the Valkyries allow. They were the best team in the WNBA at preventing assists during the regular season, and it’s been the same story all throughout the playoffs.
Quarters 2-4 looked more like the series we’ve seen so far. After the 32-15 first quarter, Golden State outscored Atlanta 54-48 over the remainder of the game. They tightened up the passing lanes defensively, as the Dream had 10 assists on their remaining 16 made field goals. If it weren’t for some timely threes by Allisha Gray — who looked like her best self when she needed to — the Valkyries could have easily gotten back into this game.
Despite Atlanta’s offensive breakout, this matchup still comes down to the defenses. And we might get some interesting wrinkles for Game 7. Kiah Stokes has been the Valkyries’ MVP so far, but Angel Reese diced her up in the first quarter of Game 6. Golden State head coach Natalie Nakase, ever the tinkerer, threw a curveball in Atlanta after the first quarter. Laeticia Amihere — who hadn’t played since Game 3 — got 20 minutes of playing time in Game 6 and she grabbed 10 rebounds and was a +14 in an 11-point loss. It’s possible Nakase leans into her minutes off the bench to keep the Dream on the back foot.
The battle between Veronica Burton and Allisha Gray carries a lot of weight in this Game 7. Burton is Golden State’s best perimeter defender and will have her hands full with Gray, Jordin Canada, and Rhyne Howard. If she can hold up and stop some drives, it’ll go a long way towards putting the momentum in Golden State’s favor. But she also has to be better offensively; her scoring inefficiency has sunk them at times. Gray has done good defensive work on her and finally knocked down some big shots in Game 6 to keep Atlanta’s offense running. If she can knock down a few more threes in Game 7, Atlanta has a great chance at hoisting a trophy.
Valkyries vs. Dream Pick, Best Bet
This series hit the under in four out of the first five games and if it wasn’t for Atlanta’s first-quarter explosion in Game 6, it would have been five for six. I’m trusting these defenses to lock it down again; this series deserves a rock fight of a Game 7.
