The college football season rolls along this week with a number of notable matchups across the Power 4 and Group of 6 ranks. The Big 12 plays host to one of these matchups, as we’ll see the Texas Tech Red Raiders host the Arizona Wildcats in a game that carries a ton of Big 12 title and potential College Football Playoff implications.
Arizona has been one of the hottest teams in the conference heading into this week, having won four consecutive games by an average margin of nearly 24 points. Conversely, Texas Tech was just routed by Cincinnati as double digit road favorites in a game that highlighted some of the obvious flaws with this Red Raiders team. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for Saturday’s college football game between Arizona and Texas Tech.
Texas Tech is a 3.5-point favorite for this matchup with the total listed at 54.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig into the odds and my best bet on Saturday’s matchup, and don’t miss our complete coverage of all of the Week 9 college football action at DraftKings Network.
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Arizona vs. Texas Tech Prediction
Arizona has to be one of the more unheralded one-loss teams in the country, and it’s hard to find many teams who are playing better football at the moment. Noah Fifita continues to shine as the veteran leader of an offense that is absolutely rolling (ranked 12th in EPA per play and 4th in EPA per pass). The Wildcats offense gets another pretty favorable matchup this week against a Texas Texas defense that has some major holes in the secondary and just allowed Cincinnati to average over six yards per play a week ago.
Unlike their counterparts, the Red Raiders have underperformed compared to preseason expectations from the onset. This team clearly went after Brendan Sorsby for a reason last spring because they currently have one of the least inspiring quarterback situations in the entire conference. Will Hammond has struggled mightily a season after tearing his ACL, as the junior has just as many touchdowns as interceptions (six apiece) while also taking 11 sacks to this point.
The Red Raiders were expected to be a team that could run the ball with great success, but that hasn’t been the case either (ranked 65th in EPA per rush and 51st in rushing success rate). Furthermore, the wide receivers are struggling to create separation and the passing game has bogged down once they get behind the chains. This is a sputtering offense that is in desperate need of a good matchup to break out of their slump, and that isn’t in the cards this week.
Arizona is a well-coached defense that has managed to be successful despite suffering a ton of injuries in the secondary. The Wildcats have held up well while playing an extremely high rate of man coverage, and that doesn’t bode well for Hammond and an underwhelming Red Raiders wide receiver room. Elsewhere, the Wildcats run defense is 23rd in yards per rush allowed and the Texas Tech backfield has not lived up to expectations behind a very solid offensive line.
Arizona vs. Texas Tech Best Bet
It’s understandable to at least give Texas Tech a cursory look in this matchup. After all, this is a pretty significant downgrade from the lookahead line of 7.5 prior to last week’s games. However, I’m getting the better head coach and the far better quarterback in a game that I expect to come down to the final few possessions. At anything over a field goal, Arizona is certainly my preferred side in this Big 12 clash.