Two Western Conference contenders do battle on Saturday night in what could be a frighteningly fun Halloween matchup. The Minnesota Timberwolves are on the road and adapting to life without Anthony Edwards at the moment, but they’ll be leaning plenty on LaMelo Ball to get the job done against a team that was just in the NBA Finals back in June. The San Antonio Spurs are on the home side, with Victor Wembanyama looking to cause nightmares for the opposition as he seemingly always does.
Read on for a full preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s Timberwolves vs. Spurs matchup, courtesy of odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Timberwolves vs. Spurs prediction, preview
Adapting to life without an injured superstar isn’t particularly easy, especially after undergoing some pretty significant roster changes in the offseason. However, the Timberwolves got back on the right foot two nights ago with a win over the Clippers and lost by just five points to the Warriors in their first outing without Anthony Edwards, who will miss up to two months after undergoing a knee procedure. They’re now 4-2 to start the season and still rank first in NETRTG at +14.4. This offense may be quite good even without Edwards as they average 121.5 PPG, second most, ranking seventh in OFFRTG. Minnesota is shooting 48.4% from the field and 39.2% from deep, both of which rank in the league’s top-six teams. However, the defense will be the key to getting by in their star’s absence as they’re allowing only 106.7 PPG to opponents, seventh fewest, and rank first in DEFRTG as well. The Wolves are dominating the boards with the second-most rebounds per game (50.2), with those extra possessions looking crucial now.
The team is led in scoring at the moment by Jaden McDaniels, who averages 17.0 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. He and Ball – who’s posting 15.2 points and 6.7 assists – both had 20+ points in the Wolves’ last win, so it’s clear who will be carrying the load on offense for the foreseeable future. Terrence Shannon Jr. is pitching in 13.7 PPG and Ayo Dosunmu brings 13.3 PPG in the backcourt, while Jonathan Kuminga is the Wolves’ other double-digit scorer with 11.8 PPG. Rudy Gobert’s limited offensive upside has taken a downturn thus far, but he’s also pacing the roster with 12.3 rebounds per outing, too. Minnesota is coming off a back-to-back, though, so they’re yet to release an injury report for tonight as of the time this article was written.
The Spurs find themselves 3-2 heading into tonight’s contest and have strung together all three of those wins in succession. It’s been a much-needed turn given how they started the season with back-to-back losses, though it should be noted that these three victories came against the Mavericks, Kings and Jazz. Still, they’re looking more like the contender we know them to be. San Antonio sits eighth in NETRTG at +6.5 and hasn’t even had Tobias Harris available as he remains out with a calf strain, leaving the team without one of the most underrated signings of the offseason. The Spurs are scoring 116.6 PPG and are 11th in OFFRTG, though they fall middle-of-the-pack in efficiency with a 46.0% FG% and a 34.6% 3P%. They do rank fifth in assists per game (28.2) and are second in AST/TO ratio, though. Defensively, they’re seventh in DEFRTG and allow 110.0 PPG, 10th fewest in the league. They’re just 13th in rebounding (45.0 per contest) but are eighth in steals (9.8) and sixth in blocks (6.6).
The vast majority of this roster is healthy, with Harris the only rotation piece sidelined tonight. Victor Wembanyama’s 25.0 points and 11.4 rebounds per game are team-best marks, and the French big man also paces the NBA in blocks per game with 3.8. The guards are also key contributors. Stephon Castle is producing 17.4 points with 5.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists, Dylan Harper averages 17.2 points and 4.6 dimes, and De’Aaron Fox is at 15.4 points and a team-best 7.0 assists. Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie also pitch in double-digit scoring with 12.6 and 11.6 PPG, respectively.
Timberwolves vs. Spurs pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Spurs as a 12.5-point home favorite tonight with -600 odds on the Moneyline. The Timberwolves are a +440 underdog to win outright on the road with the total set at 226.5 combined points.
I understand why San Antonio is such a heavy favorite at home, but the spread does feel a good deal too wide for my liking. The Spurs have the best player in this game by far and are deeper overall, also having the advantage of rest and playing on their own home court tonight. They’re quite likely to win, but I just don’t think it’s going to be as dominant of a showing as the betting lines currently indicate.
Minnesota put up a great fight against Golden State in the first game without Edwards, then beat the lowly Clippers by 26 last night to begin NBA Cup play. Even without their superstar, they’ve looked quite competitive. Their roster is still quite young for the most part and the season just began, so even on night two of the back-to-back, tired legs shouldn’t be too big of an issue. The biggest key is their defense, too. So long as Gobert can hold his own in the paint against Wembanyama and the rim pressure the guard trio provides, the Wolves should be able to hang around thanks to their play on that side of the ball thus far. With the spread set at 12.5, Minnesota should be able to keep the deficit within that margin, assuming the rotation remains mostly intact once the injury report is filed.
