The UFC is back in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a Fight Night event headlined by a top-15 matchup at 155 pounds between No. 12 Renato Moicano and No. 14 Tom Nolan. The event also features an intriguing Welterweight bout as rising star Jacobe Smith looks to keep his undefeated record intact against the experienced Randy Brown.
Check out my best bets and full breakdown below ahead of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night event.
Best Bets for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
- Tom Nolan Moneyline (+105): Although this is a major step up in competition for Nolan, he has the skill set to get the best of Moicano, as he is normally more cautious than Moicano, who often doesn’t make the best decisions.
- Jacobe Smith to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-160): Since entering the UFC Octagon, Smith has shown championship potential; he is well-rounded with an unbelievable will to win in impressive fashion.
- Joe Kropschot to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-160): Kropschot is coming off an excellent win on DWCS, and he is likely to be more aggressive against Klein, who is coming off back-to-back losses by knockout.
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan Best Bets Breakdown
Tom Nolan Moneyline (+105)
Nolan, who has won five consecutive fights, is set for his first UFC Main Event against former title challenger Moicano. Although Moicano is 1-2 in his previous three contests, he comes off a second-round submission win over Chris Duncan. Moicano was originally slated to face Brian Ortega at UFC 331, but Ortega couldn’t fight causing Moicano to switch his fight date.
In this bout, Moicano is a -125 favorite, while Nolan is a +105 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. Moicano has the edge in striking accuracy (49% vs. 45%) and defense (59% vs. 48%) on the feet, but Nolan averages more significant strikes per minute (4.84 vs. 4.10).
This is the biggest opportunity of Nolan’s career, and a victory over Moicano could get him closer to the top-10 of the Lightweight division. Although both fighters are skilled submission specialists, they do their best work on the feet, which is where most of this bout is likely to take place. Nolan seems very prepared for this fight and spent time training with UFC Lightweight, Dan Hooker. Getting Nolan as a +105 underdog is great value because, although he is less known on the big stage, his talent and potential are high.
Jacobe Smith to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-160)
One of the top fighters on the rise in the Welterweight division, Jacobe Smith, is back to take on his toughest challenge to date with 10-year UFC veteran Randy Brown. Smith, 13-0 with 11 finishes, has started his UFC career 4-0, with four finishes in the last 21 months. All 11 of Smith’s wins by submission or knockout have come in the first two rounds, which is impressive.
Brown has lost two consecutive fights and is in the middle of the longest losing streak of his career. In the past year, Brown has lost to Kevin Holland and Gabriel Bonfim. Brown is five inches taller (6’3″ vs. 5’10”) and has a six-inch reach advantage (78″ vs. 72″). For this contest, Smith is a -265 favorite with Brown being a +215 underdog.
Although Brown is the bigger fighter, Smith should be able to minimize that issue with elite quickness, fast pace, and high output. This is a massive fight for Smith as he could enter the top-15 at 170 pounds with another impressive performance. I believe that will happen, as Smith’s skills are top-tier and, even as the competition has gotten tougher, he has elevated his game. With Smith’s last seven victories coming by finish, I’m taking him to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission at -160.
Joe Kropschot to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-160)
In the first week of Dana White’s Contender Series’ 10th season, Joe Kropschot defeated Jon Kunneman to earn a UFC contract. Kropschot enters this fight with a 9-3 record with eight wins by submission or knockout. Since 2023, Kropschot has gone 4-0 with three submissions. Kropschot faces Nick Klein, 6-3 with five finishes, who is in the midst of a two-fight losing streak.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Kropschot is a -310 favorite, while Klein is a +250 underdog. Kropschot possesses a two-inch advantage in height (6’3″ vs. 6’1″) and standing reach (79″ vs. 77″) over Klein. Including his DWCS appearance, Klein is averaging 5.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and 2.51 significant strikes per minute. In Kropschot’s last fight, he landed 129 significant strikes, scored one takedown, and attempted three submissions.
Klein is a versatile fighter who is skilled but has struggled against more aggressive fighters recently. With Kropschot’s physical advantages, he has the tools to do what Andrey Pulyaev and Mansur Abdul-Malik did against Klein. Although Kropschot is coming off a decision win, it was the first victory of his career on the judges’ scorecards. Eight of Kropschot’s nine wins have come by knockout or submission. I’m taking Kropschot to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission at -160. Also, Klein’s three career losses have come by knockout.
Stats provided by UFC Stats.
