What if I told you the weather’s been too nice, this fine autumn season, for me to wax rhapsodic about the relatively banal comings-and-goings this week in the NFL media circus, Panthers defensive staff aside. Just feels like a waste of breath to flourish the reality of this league—poor officiating, obvious organizational signaling that player health and safety is secondary to bottom lines, the literally-world-wearying and ever-imperializing schedule of international games, etc.—such as it stands instead of watching the leaves fall and lighting a fire in the yard with my dogs. You’re here for lineup advice. I’ve got it.
How to sort through it all this week? Pray for clean football and no flags. I play. Sort of. Of course—I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 8 edition. The season’s turning edition.
For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start wide receivers for fantasy football Week 8. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 8
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 8
- Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 8
- Top five streamer plays for fantasy football Week 8
All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.
Fantasy football Week 8: Top five wide receivers to smash-start
Michael Wilson, ARI (at Cowboys)
Fantasy managers are really feeling the uncomfortable press of the fantasy ceiling with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, as far as Cardinals skill players go. None more so affected than Michael Wilson, who’s had to work awfully hard for the paltry statline he already has, even after MHJ vacated the organization. Brissett leads the league at 43.4 dropbacks per game, but has squeezed just 5.67 yards from each pass attempt. Wilson has caught four passes in each of his last three games for a combined 117 yards. Arizona has spent far too much of the afternoon throwing for precious little return. West-coast style offense taken far too literally, if you ask me.
Still, I like this matchup. Wilson has been considerably sharper against Cover 3 and Cover 1, commanding targets on 31% of his routes and averaging 2.03 YPRR across 131 routes, well above his 1.39 overall YPRR figure. The Cowboys use those coverages on 59.3% of coverage plays, so Brissett, importantly, has reason to look beyond Cardinals tight end Trey McBride more often. Dallas has defended outside receivers better than the slot, though, especially since the arrival of Joey Porter Jr., and McBride will draw his usual share. I’d start Wilson as a WR2 if his sore ribs allow his normal routes; Arizona’s patched-up line and Brissett’s poor throwing still leave him with plenty to overcome. This is his bounceback week.
Justin Jefferson, MIN (at Lions)
As an entire fantasy community, we agree that we’re all sympathetic to Justin Jefferson’s career arc, yes? Jefferson described the “in-between feeling” of being undefeated without his usual production. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell called him “our best player,” and discussed ways to “activate him.” O’Connell’s let plenty of us (and a growing list of quarterbacks) down in the past, but, with Detroit on Sunday, he’s got a great opportunity to give Jettas his due.
Jefferson has been shaking coverage well enough, still, to average an excellent 2.67 YPRR through Minnesota’s passing struggles. Put him against Cover 3 and Cover 1, Detroit’s predominant combination, and he has climbed to 3.70 YPRR while earning targets on 30% of his 53 routes. The Lions have surrendered a league-worst 312.3 passing yards and 2.7 passing touchdowns per game. I like Jefferson breaking back into WR1 territory at Ford Field in a big way.
Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray has to throw better for him. Murray has managed a league-worst 48.8% accurate-throw rate among passers with at least 150 dropbacks, and Detroit has defended better since cutting back on blitzes. Jefferson can get clear of these coverages; Minnesota’s run-heavy approach and Murray’s uneven delivery can still strand him there.
Drake London, ATL (at Buccaneers)
Drake London finally scored against San Francisco, catching seven passes for 66 yards, and I’d start him as a WR1 again in Tampa Bay expecting paydirt. Momentum is its own reward, baby! Michael Penix Jr. has fed him enough for at least 12.2 PPR points in all five of their games together, with nine or more targets in four. London has been tearing through coverage all season, averaging a formidable 3.21 YPRR, fourth among qualifying receivers. Unlike Jefferson, London is, indeed, activated.
Tampa Bay’s defense can spoil some of London’s shine by getting Penix on the ground, as is their way. The Buccaneers have collected five sacks in consecutive games, and Penix has taken sacks on 25.7% of his pressured dropbacks. London should give him plenty to like against Cover 3 and Cover 4, which Tampa Bay uses on 67.8% of coverage plays. In 119 routes against those schemes, he’s commanded a a 31% TPRR. London should again be the receiver Penix feeds most often, even if the Buccaneers force a few drives to end in punts. He has earned enough catches to carry a fantasy afternoon without another touchdown, but I’m betting he gets a sweet one. I just feel it, you know?
KC Concepcion, CLE (at Steelers)
Caring is cool, and the path of sincerity is a more satisfying way to win than the slippery slope of irony. Such is the entire spirit of this stellar rookie in Cleveland, as KC Concepcion’s love for this game (and his own) is finally showing up on the stat sheet. With Deshaun Watson looking farther downfield for him, Concepcion tore through Tennessee for eight catches and 129 yards. He averaged 11.1 air yards per target, up from 5.39 through Week 6, and the Browns handed him the ball three times for another 23 yards. He’s the gadget piece with which Monken’s offense is being most experimental.
Concepcion has claimed 24% of Cleveland’s targets and 30% of the first reads across his six completed games, and that’s with the also-uber-impressive Denzel Boston lined up alongside him. I’d start him at the lower end of WR2, and Cleveland should continue finding him quick throws behind their patched-up line. Concepcion has averaged 5.87 yards after the catch; he can gain ground without making Watson wait for every deeper route to open. Watson has taken sacks on 23.8% of his pressured dropbacks, so Cleveland has good reason to get the ball out of his hands.
Pittsburgh has held slot receivers to just 41 receiving yards per game, although opponents have caught 4.6 passes there. Concepcion already got them for five catches and 64 yards in the first meeting.
Tre Tucker, LV (at Jets)
For as long as he continues to start, Kirk Cousins seems to be deliberately seeking out Tre Tucker when opponents send extra rushers, and the Jets are particularly fond of doing just that. They blitz on 44.4% of dropbacks. Across 65 routes against blitzes, Tucker has earned targets on 28% of his routes and averaged 2.03 YPRR. Cousins has thrown for at least 243 yards in six straight games; Tucker has caught four or more passes in each of those games.
Tucker torched the Rams for 103 yards and a touchdown last week, his third game with at least 97 yards and a score, while drawing 12 targets and running 86% of the routes. I’d start him as a volatile WR2. Las Vegas throws on 60.1% of neutral-situation plays, giving him work before a deficit forces Cousins to air it out. New York has held outside receivers to the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game, though, and Raiders tight end Brock Bowers has drawn at least eight targets in all five of his appearances. Tucker will have to earn his share again.
