Florida Atlantic wideout Easton Messer did just about everything for coach Zach Kittley against Rice. He caught 12 passes for 162 yards and scored on runs from the two and five; after the Owls punted on three straight possessions, he raced 82 yards on a punt return for his fifth touchdown. Kittley has a hell of a player to build around. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the North Texas Mean Green and the Florida Atlantic Owls.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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North Texas vs. FAU prediction, preview
Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has been feeding him beautifully. Even after Kittley changed both starting guard assignments, Veltkamp completed 29 of 37 throws for 339 yards against Rice, with fellow receiver Kelby Valsin adding seven catches for 78. The Owls finished touchdown drives of 75, 75 and 90 yards. Kittley has good reason to let Veltkamp throw his way across the field again.
He has been leaving Veltkamp out for fourth downs, too. Florida Atlantic has converted 15 of 23 attempts this season, including both against Rice. North Texas defensive coordinator Matt Powledge already had that problem against Tulsa, who converted a paltry three of 17 third downs against his unit yet went five-for-five on fourth. The Mean Green needed overtime to win 45–44. Against Kittley, Powledge’s defenders have to finish those stops.
North Texas quarterback Tayven Jackson has been scorching people. At Navy, he threw for 305 yards and three touchdowns on just 23 attempts, with wideout Justin Stevenson catching eight passes for a monstrous 209 yards. Stevenson has caught two touchdowns in three consecutive games and will again play without injured fellow receiver Corri Milliner. Running back Jahiem White tore off a 59-yard touchdown among his 174 rushing yards on 20 carries. White had already shredded Tulsa for 219 yards on 32 carries. During the final possession at Navy, he also caught a seven-yard pass on fourth-and-one as coach Neal Brown’s offense consumed the last 6:32. Brown’s blockers have allowed just six sacks through seven games.
FAU vs. North Texas pick, best bet
Brown has cautioned against treating Florida Atlantic’s option-defense failures as the whole story. The Owls surrendered 479 rushing yards to Army and 499 to Rice, but held FIU to 95 and ULM to 54. White should still hurt them; alongside his rushing at Navy, he caught four passes for 58 yards. Florida Atlantic has to account for him while covering Stevenson on a five-day turnaround.
I expect Jackson and White to win this at DATCU Stadium. North Texas allowed 506 yards to Navy’s option offense while scoring twice on defense and special teams. Powledge can disrupt Veltkamp—his defenders have 15 sacks through seven games against an offense that has allowed 13—but Veltkamp just threw well after Kittley changed both guard assignments. I’ll take 14.5 with Veltkamp still finding Messer and Valsin to extend possessions.
Best bet: Florida Atlantic +14.5 (-112).
Projected score: North Texas 45, Florida Atlantic 35.
Best Bet: FAU +14.5 (-110) at North Texas
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