Eastern Conference hopefuls will look to make an early season statement on Thursday. The Cavaliers (3-1) would be undefeated if not for a season-opening collapse in Philadelphia. As for the Hawks (2-3), it’s been a mixed bag; a deep, youthful roster has had its growing pains to start the year. Which of these postseason contenders will come out on top tonight in Atlanta?
The Hawks enter today’s matchup as 1.5-point favorites, with the total set at 237.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Thursday’s Cleveland vs. Atlanta contest.
Cavaliers vs. Hawks prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, Cleveland has bounced back following a disastrous season-opening loss. The Cavaliers have reeled off three straight wins, including an overtime victory against the Anthony Edwards-led Timberwolves. Offense has been the calling card for this group, which doesn’t come as a surprise. James Harden, last season’s big acquisition, has had a full offseason with the organization. The former MVP is accompanied by face of the franchise Donovan Mitchell. Through four games, the seven-time All-Star is averaging 24.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game along with 50/46/87 shooting splits. As a unit, the Cavs are scoring the NBA’s seventh-most points per game (119.8).
Things haven’t been as promising on the other end of the floor. Opponents are scoring an average of 117.8 points per game against Cleveland, 11th-worst in the association. That’s despite the presence of former Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley and center Jarrett Allen down low. Offseason pickup Peyton Watson was expected to stifle opposing scorers, but he’ll need some time adjusting to a new squad. One area where the Cavaliers remain stout is on the glass. Their 47.0 rebounds per game are good enough for sixth-best in the association. To boot, they lead all of basketball with 7.5 blocks a night.
The best way to counter a club that depends on its height? Run them off the floor. That’ll be the plan for Atlanta, a group that plays an up-tempo brand of basketball. The team is operating at the NBA’s fifth-quickest pace (103.5), scoring the sport’s fifth-most points per game (120.2). Five different members of the roster are putting up double-digit points, led by All-Star Jalen Johnson (19.6 PPG). The Hawks have connected on 46.9% of their field goal attempts, eighth-best in the association. To boot, they’re attempting the sport’s sixth-most three-pointers per game (41.4). That’s a recipe for a high-octane scoring attack.
The Hawks have given up their fair share of buckets, an unfortunate consequence of playing fast on offense. Still, the team has maintained a respectable 13th-place ranking in defensive rating (111.3). Atlanta has done a poor job on the glass, 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (46.8). Even worse, opponents are shooting 47.5% from the field; that’s sixth-worst in the NBA. The Hawks have coughed up 120 points or more in each of their previous three defeats, two to Houston and one against Miami.
Best Bet: Hawks ML (-115)
Both teams come into this one on the second leg of a back-to-back, so there will be some tired players on the court. In a battle of attrition, depth should play a bigger role than usual. In that regard, I’m leaning towards the Hawks and their up-tempo approach. There are some concerns on the glass, but a bigger Cavaliers lineup could have trouble keeping up tonight. Atlanta’s knack for firing away from deep could also provide a boost against Cleveland’s middling perimeter defense. Back the home team as slight favorites in this one.
