Neither the Dallas Mavericks nor the Miami Heat made the playoffs last season, but both expected to improve significantly headed into the 2026/27 campaign. Dallas swapped head coach Jason Kidd for Dusty May and added a promising young piece via trade in former first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher, while Miami traded for two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Both teams have been slightly disappointing to open the season, and they’ll face each other tonight in South Florida, with tipoff set for 7:40 p.m. ET. The Heat are searching for their first win of the season, while the Mavericks are 1-2.
Everyone on Miami’s roster is available for tonight’s game. Dallas, on the other hand, will be without Santi Aldama (knee), Tarik Biberovic (heel), Dereck Lively II (foot), Naji Marshall (illness), and Caleb Martin (thumb), although Cooper Flagg (shoulder) was upgraded to probable after missing Saturday’s loss to the San Antonio Spurs. Kyrie Irving (knee), who also sat out that game, is without an injury designation.
The Heat are 7.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-285 Moneyline), with the point total set to 241.5. The Mavericks are +230 on the Moneyline.
Below, I’ll break down tonight’s 2011 NBA Finals rematch and offer a prediction.
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat preview, prediction
Flagg looked to be taking a second-season leap before going down with his injury, as he scored 32 points and added five rebounds and three steals in the season opener and recording a 14-5-6-3-1 line in the first half of the second game before his exit. If his performance is sustainable and Irving stays healthy, Dallas has all the tools to have a top-half offense. Defensively, the Mavericks were a bottom-half team in 2025/26 and are a bottom-half team again so far this season, although they could climb to slightly above-average this season if Flagg’s and Risacher’s defensive improvements continue. It’s also worth noting that Dallas has played a difficult schedule, facing the two other Texas teams.
Miami has also played a difficult schedule, suffering blowout defeats against the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Detroit Pistons before its late comeback attempt against the Charlotte Hornets ultimately came up short. Antetokounmpo has been excellent, averaging 28.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game despite fouling out of the loss against the Hornets, but Bam Adebayo’s jumper hasn’t been falling. The Heat have had both the fourth-worst offense and fourth-worst defense so far this season, although I trust them to end up with a top-10 defense, given Erik Spoelstra’s and Antetokounmpo’s pedigrees.
Mavericks at Heat pick, best bet
Both teams have fairly strong interior play on both sides of the ball. Last season, Miami did a slightly better job getting to the rim and finishing than the Mavericks did, an advantage that should only grow with Antetokounmpo, arguably the most dominant interior threat of the 2000’s, now on the roster, but Flagg did a good job as a finisher and Daniel Gafford is an imposing lob threat. The teams weren’t quite as good at stopping opponents from getting to the basket last season, but Antetokounmpo should help the Heat with that, and natural progression from Flagg and Risacher should aid the visitors. I’d give the Heat the overall edge, but Dallas’ young forward core has promise.
Miami was better on the glass than the Mavericks last season, and despite early results to the contrary, I’d back that to remain the case in the long run. Antetokounmpo basically held the Milwaukee Bucks afloat on the glass the last two seasons, and in theory, he and Adebayo should provide more than enough size to dominate the boards. The Heat should also maintain their edge in transition, given that they were among the league’s best in such situations already and added one of the most fearsome transition threats in NBA history in Antetokounmpo. Similarly, both teams did a good job both avoiding fouls and getting to the charity stripe last season, and although Antetokounmpo fouled out against Charlotte, he’s typically been fairly disciplined while leading the league in free-throw attempts per game three times.
Shooting is a major question mark for both teams. Dallas produced the fewest wide-open three-pointers per game last season, with Miami near the middle of the pack, and it also connected on such shots at the lowest rate. So far this season, it hasn’t demonstrated much progress in that regard, as while Irving’s return should help, Flagg’s jumper is one of the last remaining question marks about his game and both Max Christie (a 40.4% three-point shooter last season) and Risacher have been awful from deep. The Heat should at least continue producing a lot of decent looks thanks to Antetokounmpo’s gravity, but Klay Thompson has shown plenty of signs of his age and both Davion Mitchell and Adebayo have been inconsistent from deep at best throughout their careers. I’d bank on Andrew Wiggins to improve, but Miami still has questions to answer.
On paper, the Heat have the advantage in every aspect of the game, as Antetokounmpo’s singular dominance as a paint threat and transition runner allow him to impact the game to a level few have before him. However, it’s just hard to pick a team that has two losses by 17 points or more and another game in which it trailed by 21 after three quarters, and it will take time for Miami to develop chemistry, as seamless a fit as Antetokounmpo seems to be into the Heat’s ethos on the surface. I’ll back the Mavericks to keep this one competitive.
