There are just two teams in Europe’s top five leagues who remain perfect in domestic competition; although Manchester City found itself embroiled in controversy over its decade-long fraud scandal, the results on the pitch have spoken for themselves, as the Sky Blues are a perfect seven-for-seven in the Premier League.
They’ll face arguably their toughest test of the season at 7:30 a.m. ET (12:30 p.m. local) when they travel to face Aston Villa, last season’s fourth-place finisher.
Man City is a -160 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to claim all three points, and the Villans are +390. A draw is available at +340.
Below, I’ll break down this battle of Champions League sides and provide my favorite bet.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Best Bet:
- Aston Villa or Draw (+125): Even though the Sky Blues are currently perfect in the league, their defeats in the Champions League and Community Shield, as well as their mediocre expected numbers defensively, suggest that they’re not perfect. Aston Villa has picked up five wins from its last six in all competitions and should have a robust home advantage. Stiker Nicolas Jackson is starting to find his way.
Aston Villa vs. Manchester City prediction, pick
The Sky Blues have had some more convincing results than others, but 7-0-0 is 7-0-0. They needed a winner in stoppage time to overturn a 1-0 deficit against Bournemouth in Matchweek 1, topped Manchester United in controversial fashion in Matchweek 4, and held off Ipswich Town late to win 3-2 in Matchweek 7. They haven’t been perfect outside the league, making it to the fourth round of the EFL Cup but losing the Community Shield 3-0 to Arsenal and losing 4-2 to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League. Just like last season, Aston Villa started off slow, picking up just one point from its first four matches, but it has since pulled off two wins and a draw. The Villans lost the UEFA Super Cup to PSG to open their season, but they trail Les Parisiens only on goals scored in the League Phase table.
Aston Villa has had a pretty well-rounded attack this season, but it hasn’t been a particularly strong one, as it hasn’t scored more than three goals in any Premier League match. New signings Nicolas Jackson and the currently-injured Johan Manzambi are the only players with two goals each, and Manzambi is tied for the team lead with a pair of assists. Emi Buendía, John McGinn, and Alysson have one each. Overall, the Villans have produced chances worth the fifth-fewest expected goals, getting the fewest on target. Additionally, they’ve been the worst team from set pieces and have managed the sixth-fewest touches in the box, though at least they’ve completed passes at among the highest rates. Defensively, Villa has given up the sixth-most xG from the fifth-most shots while winning aerial duels at by far the lowest clip, but it’s been pretty good at defending set pieces and has managed the fourth-most tackles. The Villans have also been the best at playing the offsides trap, and they foul relatively infrequently. In between the sticks, new signing Zion Suzuki has been excellent, saving 73.1% of the shots on target he’s faced and keeping two clean sheets so far.
Manchester City have been expectedly excellent going forward. Erling Haaland, who leads the league with eight goals in seven appearances, is the headliner, but Rayan Cherki (four goals and two assists) and Antoine Semenyo (two goals and three assists) have been tremendous as well. Plus, new additions Enzo Fernández (one goal), Elliot Anderson (one assist), and Iliman Ndiaye (one assist) have made their presence felt. Given that they have so much attacking depth, it should come as no surprise that the Sky Blues lead the league in xG while ranking second in goals and third in shots on target, especially since they’ve managed the second-most touches in the box and completed passes at the highest rate. Defensively, Man City has allowed the ninth-fewest xG from the eighth-fewest shots on target and the fewest touches in the box while winning aerial duels at the third-highest rate. The Sky Blues haven’t pressed frequently, but when they have, it’s been effective; they’ve managed the sixth-most high turnovers, two of which have led directly to goals. They’ve conceded only seven goals because Gianluigi Donnarumma ranks second in the league in Goals Prevented, behind only Brighton’s Bart Verbruggen.
As good as Manchester City has been going forward, getting all three points is far from a guarantee. The Sky Blues have been imperfect enough in the defense that it’s conceivable to see them slip up, with Villa having won or drawn six straight games in all competitions. Jackson has scored in two of his last three games. Last season, the Villans managed 11 more points at home than on the road, and City had 12 fewer points on the road than at home. Villa is sloppy enough and the Sky Blues’ press good enough that I don’t feel incredibly confident about it, but +125 odds for the Villans to take at least a point at home feels like good value, especially with Semenyo injured. Aston Villa won both of the teams’ matchups last season.
