All the sudden, this waiver period, it seemed a little bit like the delicious glimmer of opportunity, of poetic possibilities, swept fantasy football managers into a bit of sensationalism about this season again. Indeed, there was plenty to be excited about, if you chose to ignore some of the violence that freed up the depth chart slots. I mean, really: A little bit of Omar Cooper Jr., here, a little bit of Jordyn Tyson there. Didn’t get them? You probably got Jaylin Noel. Or Treylon Burks/Antonio Williams. Maybe someone in your league dropped Chris Godwin and you snatched him back up before Baker Mayfield starts for the Bucs on Sunday. Corey Kiner, Samaje Perine, Tyrone Tracy—how’re those for three names you might have tossed to the end of your bench in PPR leagues for receiving production out of the backfield slots? Add in familiar names circling back to fantasy relevancy again—Kyle Pitts, Michael Mayer, C.J. Stroud—and we’ve got ourselves a little chaotic party. And we all know chaos is a ladder. If you’re here, you’re a climber. And week after week after bloody, glorious week, we’ve got a win to summit.
Happy Fantasy Friday once again—hopefully you stuck & moved on your lineup construction and in all other competitive endeavors this past week. I’m no prisoner of the moment, but the Week 7 waiver period of this season may be one we look back on as a fulcrum for championship-winning lineups. There were that many guys to be excited about. How to sort through it all, though? Of course—I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 7 edition. The war mind edition.
For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start running backs for fantasy football Week 7. Here are my other offerings in this edition:
- Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 7
- Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 7
- Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 7
- Top five streamer plays for fantasy football Week 7
All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.
Fantasy football Week 7: Top five running backs to start
Bucky Irving, TB (at Panthers)
I’m going back to Bucky Irving, provided he totally clears his illness; it looks as if he should. Pittsburgh smothered him for 46 yards on 19 carries last week, and Irving ran for 24 fewer yards than expected. Tampa Bay still ran him out there for 82.2% of its offensive snaps, including 91% of early downs, and, maybe most importantly, every two-minute snap. The Buccaneers left him in charge through a miserable rushing afternoon, which, you’d think, signals a full change of the guard. Even if not, I love what Bucky does on limited carries, and love the matchup this week.
Carolina has allowed opponents to gain 0.85 rushing yards above expectation per attempt, most in the league, and 3.1 yards per attempt after contact, also a league worst. Irving should find substantially less resistance than he encountered against Pittsburgh. He also ran routes on roughly 64% of Tampa Bay’s dropbacks, although he caught only two passes for three yards.
Baker Mayfield practiced fully Wednesday and Thursday and has targeted backs on 26.1% of his attempts, compared with rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels’ 14.1%. If Mayfield returns, I’m projecting more targets for Irving. Irving resumed limited practice Thursday after his illness, so he should get work Sunday. If he starts, I’m firing him away.
Jaylen Warren, PIT (vs. Saints [Paris])
In lead-back duties elsewhere, Pittsburgh leaned on Jaylen Warren for almost the entirety of their 13-point fourth-quarter comeback against Tampa Bay. Warren played 31 of 37 snaps across the fourth quarter and overtime, bloating him to a total 73.7% snap share. Earlier, Pittsburgh had divided its rushing work more evenly: Warren played 19 early-down snaps across the first three quarters to fellow back Rico Dowdle’s 14. Warren claimed the hot hand, as it were.
Warren still handled 14 of the backs’ 21 carries and ran 21 routes to Dowdle’s eight. In the opening two weeks, when both backs were available, Pittsburgh also used Warren for short-yardage and goal-line work. Dowdle remained limited with a knee injury Wednesday and Thursday, but I’m starting Warren with both backs expected to play.
New Orleans has allowed 2.51 adjusted yards before contact per attempt, fourth-most, and a league-high 116.8 rushing yards per game to running backs. Warren gained only 50 yards on 14 attempts against Tampa Bay; he gets a defense conceding far more initial room this week. Pittsburgh averages just 17.4 backfield expected fantasy points per game, but they seem to be finding it on the ground, recently, what with the short passing game working so well. Warren can improve his rushing efficiency against the Saints, and should do it in everyone’s starting lineups.
Javonte Williams, DAL (at Eagles)
Dallas has seemed to inexplicably lose sight of an offense that averaged more than 30 points across its first four games. The Cowboys have scored 16 and 13 over the last two, and Javonte Williams managed only 50 scrimmage yards last week against Green Bay. He salvaged his fantasy afternoon by punching in a one-yard touchdown, but it’s been a bit rough for Javonte, who himself has not been overly impressive.
Williams took 11 of Dallas’ 13 backfield carries on Sunday night, but gained just one rushing yard above expectation. Still, he’s handled 15 goal-line carries through six games, already approaching the 20 he received all of last season. Williams has averaged 17.9 expected PPR points per game, too. Dallas continues giving him the rushing and scoring work even while the offense sputters, even while he doesn’t do much to impress. He’s a workhorse, at the very least. And is due for a big one this week.
Philadelphia just allowed Panthers back Chuba Hubbard to carry 28 times for 120 yards, giving Dallas reason to persist with its lead runner. Williams should get absolutely fed in this one. Dallas threw 54 passes against Green Bay and targeted him twice; fellow backs Tyler Goodson and Hunter Luepke combined for six targets. Williams is a pure volume play, here, against an uninspired Eagles defense that could allow the Cowboys to get right.
Chase Brown, CIN (at Ravens)
I’m sticking with Cincinnati running back Chase Brown out of the bye. He has handled at least 15 touches in every game this season, averaging 19. Even when fellow back Samaje Perine outcarried him 14-13 against Miami, Brown ran routes on 70% of dropbacks to Perine’s 39% and finished with 16 touches. Cincinnati continued using him extensively when Perine played his best game.
Brown has caught at least three passes in four of five outings, giving him recurring PPR work alongside those carries. He also opened the season with 197 rushing yards on 49 attempts before his two miserable rushing performances. Across five games, he has received opportunities worth 16.7 expected PPR points per outing.
Baltimore has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points to backs, so Brown needs that combination of rushing and receiving work. I’m projecting 15 to 18 touches, including three to five catches, while accounting for Perine’s larger rotation. Brown retained enough work in their most evenly divided game to support that forecast. I’m starting him as a PPR RB2.
Kyren Williams, LAR (at Raiders)
Kyren Williams has commanded—and, perhaps, after last week’s comments to the media, has now demanded—a double-digit target share in five of six games, which already surpasses his four such outings last season. Against Arizona, despite saying he’s not out there enough, he played 71.4% of offensive snaps, ran 18 routes to fellow Rams back Blake Corum’s five, and drew 15.2% of Los Angeles’ targets. Williams has averaged 18.7 expected PPR points per game.
Corum nearly matched Williams on the ground, carrying nine times to Williams’ ten, and caught a 15-yard touchdown in that loss. Williams ran for 50 yards, but received a season-low 58.6% of the backfield’s expected points—surely, this is what he meant when he was dissatisfied with his workload last game. After all, the Rams need to realize they’ve got a positive EPA/play with Williams on the field, and a negative one with Corum out there. I think they will, soon. A big correction is coming in LA.
Las Vegas just allowed Buffalo running back James Cook to rush for 95 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries, then catch all three targets for another 58 yards. I have Williams ninth among this week’s PPR backs, with catches carrying more of his projection as Corum shares the rushing work.
