A potential Western Conference Finals preview takes place tonight in OKC. The Thunder pulled off a dominant, season-opening win against the rival Spurs on Tuesday. Now, this Oklahoma City juggernaut takes on another recent NBA champion in the Nuggets. Can Denver and Nikola Jokic pull off a road upset on Thursday?
The Thunder enter tonight’s matchup as 8.5-point favorites, with the total set at 235.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Below is my full preview, prediction and best bet for Thursday’s Denver vs. Oklahoma City contest.
Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction, preview
It’d be generous to classify Denver as one of the NBA’s elite at this point. After all, the team hasn’t reached the Western Conference Finals over its last three seasons. With that being said, the mere presence of Jokic gives the Nuggets a shot to win against anyone on any given night. The three-time MVP remains an absolute force, serving as a leading scorer and distributor. Through 65 games last season, he averaged 27.7 points and a league-leading 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists. In addition, he shot an efficient 57% from the field and 38% from three-point range.
The supporting cast in Colorado is a bit hit and miss. Talented wing defender Peyton Watson is gone, now a member of the Cavaliers. Ditto for bench scorer Tim Hardaway Jr., now with the Heat. However, the front office did make a notable move with the addition of DeMar DeRozan this offseason. The three-time All-NBA selection could revive his career as a standout sixth man. As always, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon will serve as Jokic’s capable co-stars. There’s no question that Denver can score, ranking first in offensive rating last year (122.6). The bigger question is on the other end of the floor, especially without Watson. This group allowed 116.9 points per game to opponents, tenth-worst in the association.
That defense will be put to the test right away on Thursday night. Oklahoma City is out for blood, coming up just short of a second straight Finals appearance last season. There are a few faces that have left town, most notably wing defender Lu Dort. However, this roster has more than enough depth to make up for his absence. That was the case on Tuesday, in which 10 different players scored at least four points. Even more impressive, the Thunder shot 14 of 31 from three-point range (45.2%). That was due in large part to Jared McCain, who drained six of his eight attempts from long distance. Shooting from beyond the arc wasn’t a strength for this squad in the past. If that changes in any meaningful way this season, watch out.
For all the talk of rotation pieces, OKC wouldn’t accomplish much without its face of the franchise. Two-time reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the ultimate jack of all trades. Last season, the guard posted 31.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game. On the other end of the floor, he chipped in with 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocks. To top it off, he did all this while shooting an efficient 55% from the field. Over his previous five meetings with Denver, SGA is averaging a whopping 34.4 points and 9.4 assists per game. Fellow All-Stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren should make an impact in this potentially high-scoring affair as well.
Best Bet: Nuggets +8.5 (-115)
It’s tempting to back a double-digit Thunder win. After all, there’s a reason this group came into the season as co-favorites to hoist another NBA title. Regardless, Denver has had success in this matchup as of late. In eight of their last nine contests vs. OKC, the Nuggets have lost by no more than ten points. Given the amount of firepower on their roster, I’m backing the visitors to keep things close in this battle between former MVPs.
