The NBA season gets underway on Tuesday, October 20th. It was another bonkers offseason for player movement, and the competitive nature of the league shifts a big with new lottery rules that push teams away from tanking. Let’s breakdown some win totals and future plays.
For more analysis, check out the NBA Futures episode of the DraftKings Network Daily Bets podcast.
Boston Celtics Win Total
Trading Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia was a stunning headline over the summer, but these new look Celtics are going to rack up wins. Jayson Tatum is healthy and motivated, and the success of this team rests on his shoulders. But Boston should have a more dangerous lineup around Tatum than it did Brown last season, when the C’s still won 56 games. Tatum will get more out of the supporting cast, and the additions of Paul George, Mitchell Robinson and Mike Conley all help, along with a growing young core that has another year of experience.
My top win total is the Celtics to clear their win total, and with some concerns on the Knicks and 76ers, I’ll also back the C’s to win the division.
NBA Pick: Celtics OVER 50.5 Wins (-120) – 2-units
NBA Pick: Celtics Atlantic Division (+200) – 0.5-units
Charlotte Hornets Win Total
I’m a big fan of the LaMelo Ball trade for both teams. Charlotte does have to begin the season a little dinged up — the backcourt of Coby White and Kon Knueppel likely don’t start playing until a few games into the season. But White can replace a lot of what Ball brought to the offense, and turning the franchise over to Knueppel and the newly paid Brandon Miller will prove the correct move. Naz Reid provides some much needed size, and veterans were added to round out the lineup — Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, Dennis Schroder.
After a poor start, this team won 44 games, and played like a 50-win team from January on. This win total is far too discounted because of moving on from Ball. I very well think Charlotte could improve upon 44 wins from last season.
NBA Pick: Hornets OVER 38.5 Wins (-110)
Utah Jazz Win Total
The Jazz have been stockpiling assets, and it’s time to put them to use. This roster has a terrific starting five, young core, and still maintains assets to add to this bunch. I think the 22 wins from last season create a buy-low on Utah this season. But the Jazz were actively trying to lose, and with good reason.
The losses landed Darryn Peterson in Utah with the No. 2 pick. Peterson joins Keyonte George, Ace Bailey, Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. in a very talented group. There’s depth as well in Jusuf Nurkic, Brice Sensabaugh, Josh Green, Jaxson Hayes, Isaiah Collier and so on. If things go well, Danny Ainge has more draft picks ready to go to add to the roster. I’m in on this team breaking out in 2026-27.
NBA Pick: Jazz OVER 36.5 Wins (-110)
Philadelphia 76ers Win Total
The 76ers very well may have the most talented starting lineup in the NBA, but we know these things take time. Every instance we’ve seen LeBron James change uniforms, his new team has been floating around .500 when we get to January. The Sixers are going to have to learn to play together and tread water early in the season.
So then will a breakout happen the last few months of the regular season? I’m not so sure about that. I’d say the goal of this team in Philly is to avoid the Play-In Round so it can get rest for the playoffs. The goal within the regular season games will be to build chemistry. LeBron will get rest, as will Joel Embiid. Their health is paramount to Philly having any postseason success.
It’s just a lot to ask this team to go out and have a big regular season when it feels like the bigger goal will require taking it easy until April.
NBA Pick: 76ers UNDER 50.5 Wins (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers Win Total
The Lakers impressively got to 53 wins last season, but are due for some regression. Obviously, there’s the loss of LeBron, which doesn’t help. It’s Luka Doncic’s team, and he and Austin Reaves will be a fun duo … at least on one side of the floor. Even with the addition of Walker Kessler, I’m worries about the Lakers on defense.
This roster leaves a lot to be desired beyond that trio, and there’s also always the health of Doncic. Luka has played in 70 games just once since his rookie season, when he took the Mavericks to the NBA Finals in 2024. He generally misses 20 games or so, and if we factor that in, this team should really struggle when he misses any time. In a very competitive western conference where a lot of teams improved, the Lakers did not.
NBA Pick: Lakers UNDER 45.5 Wins (-105)
