Jordan Love Passing Yards Pick for Packers vs. Cowboys

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers will face off with the Dallas Cowboys to close down the Week 6 Sunday slate.

This is an important matchup for both teams as each side entered the day tied for second place in their respective divisions. Neither team is satisfied with their start to the season, and this is an important matchup as the standings begin to separate.

The Packers enter as narrow 1.5-point home favorites with -115 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cowboys hold -105 odds of getting the outright win, with the game total set at O/U 53.5 points.

There are plenty of ways to get involved. Check out the game preview and more on DraftKings Network. For now, here’s my top Jordan Love prop bet for Sunday Night Football.

Jordan Love Best Passing Yards Pick vs. Cowboys

Jordan Love Over 272.5 Passing Yards (-111)

It has been an impressive start to the season for Jordan Love. Through the opening five games, the Packers quarterback has thrown for 1,408 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. He is averaging 281.6 passing yards per game and has cleared 272.5 passing yards in three of his five outings. Love has cleared this by a comfortable margin with 312+ passing yards in each of the three games this passing prop line has been cleared.

There is a strong correlation between the volume of opportunities he has been given and the production that has resulted. Love has been held under 272.5 passing yards in both games he has been held to 30 pass attempts or fewer, and he recorded 312+ in each that he has seen more passing attempts. The Utah State product is coming off his most efficient performance of the season with 367 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Bears, completing 80.6% of his pass attempts. He has attempted 53 and 42 passes in the pair of other games he has cleared this margin. 

Expect this to be a matchup that requires Love and the Packers to air it out at a high rate. The Cowboys’ defense leaves plenty to be desired, and a clear path for the Packers’ offense to produce. Entering Week 6, Dallas ranks 25th in opponent points allowed, 25th in passing touchdowns conceded and 31st in net yards per pass attempt. It also ranks last in the NFL in opponent EPA per play, success rate, yards per play allowed and opponent EPA per pass play.

There was plenty of optimism coming into the season following a defensive coordinator change and some expected personnel improvements from a disastrous 2025 season by the defense. But the Cowboys have shown little resistance to start the year, with their pass defense clearly not being good enough. CJ Stroud has thrown for as many as 347 passing yards against this Dallas defense already this season.

With these defensive shortcomings in mind, it has left plenty of pressure on the Cowboys’ offense to provide the path to success. Dallas ranks seventh in the NFL in scoring, and the game total is set at 53.5 points for this matchup, suggesting plenty of scoring will occur. Green Bay will need to score at a high rate to keep pace, and Love will be the driving force of this effort.

Count on Love to build off his strong start to the season in his most favorable matchup thus far. The Packers have significant trust in their franchise quarterback, and this is the type of matchup he deserves free rein to air it out as much as he sees fit. Expect his volume of opportunities to prove plentiful and for 272.5 passing yards to be a comfortable bar to clear against this porous Dallas defense.