The American League Championship Series has provided plenty of drama through the first four games of the series. Each team has split a pair of home games and has two wins coming into a pivotal Game 5. It will be the last game in Cleveland in the ALCS before the series shifts back to Tampa Bay for Game 6 on Monday and Game 7 on Tuesday, if necessary. Which team will take a key 3-2 lead and move to the verge of the World Series? Let’s dive into the matchup and take a look at my top three best bets from the player prop market on DraftKings Sportsbook.
In the larger picture, the Rays are road favorites at -132 on the Moneyline and are getting 73% of the bets on the Moneyline as of Sunday afternoon. The over/under is just 6.5 runs, since it should be a great pitching matchup with Game 1 starter Drew Rasmussen on the mound for the Rays against the Guardians’ Game 2 starter, Parker Messick.
For each Major League Baseball matchup, DraftKings Sportsbook has a wide variety of batter and pitcher props on the board, so let’s take a look at my top plays from this Game 5 Rays-Guardians matchup on Sunday.
Rays at Guardians Prop Bets for Sunday 10/18/26
Drew Rasmussen over 5.5 strikeouts (+107)
Rasmussen went an impressive 16-5 in his 30 regular-season starts this season with a 2.67 ERA and 2.81 FIP. He had 174 strikeouts in his 172 innings, averaging 5.8 strikeouts per outing.
He made one start against the Yankees in the ALDS, striking out 10 over eight innings in Game 1. In Game 1 against the Guardians, he had seven strikeouts in six innings in a 7-3 Guardians win. He didn’t have his most effective stuff in that game but still got to the over on this striekout prop.
Rasmussen increased his K% from 21.7% to 26.0% this season while slashing his walk rate from 6.3% to 4.8%. He has already been such a key producer for the Rays in the playoffs, and the Rays will look to their 31-year-old veteran to get them a huge road win Sunday.
Chase DeLauter 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+120)
DeLauter has collected multiple HRR (hits, runs and RBI) in three of the four games in this series, going 5-for-14 (.357) with three RBI and three runs scored, for an average of 2.75 HRR per game. He went 3-for-4 with seven HRR in Game 1, when Rasmussen started.
In the last round against the White Sox, DeLauter hit safely in each of the last four contests, with five hits and nine HRR. The 25-year-old lefty hit .287 in his first season in the MLB with 16 homers, 11 stolen bases, and averaged 2.0 HRR per contest.
He hit .299 at home this season and had a 48.4% hard-hit rate against righties. With good momentum and strong splits, DeLauter has a good chance to hit the over on this prop with multiple paths to success on this 2+ HRR prop on Sunday.
Yandy Diaz 2+ Total Bases (+128)
Diaz has been locked in as the DH in the leadoff spot for the Rays this series. He homered in Game 4 on Saturday, going 2-for-5 with a double as well. He had a double in Game 1 and a double in Game 3 as well, going over this prop in three of the four games in the series. He’s 5-for-18 (.278) in the series and four of those five hits have gone for extra bases.
Diaz averaged 1.8 total bases per game during the regular season, and he’s been an even better play on this prop in this series. On Sunday against Messick and the Guardians, Diaz is a solid play to get either two singles or another extra-base hit, delivering the over on this prop.
