Kicking off at noon ET, the Pittsburgh Panthers will face the Boston College Eagles in Week 7 college football on Saturday.
The two programs have met 35 times, with Pittsburgh holding a 19-16 all-time advantage. Last season, the Panthers delivered a convincing 48-7 victory, and they have won two of the last three meetings.
Looking at the odds, Pittsburgh enters as a 6.5-point favorite with -238 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Boston College is +195 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 43.5 points.
This article previews both teams and offers a pick for the Week 7 matchup.
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Boston College Eagles
Pittsburgh Panthers
The Pittsburgh Panthers have started the season strong. They enter this matchup 5-1, though North Carolina snapped their undefeated run last week. The outlook also shifted significantly when starting quarterback Mason Heintschel suffered a season-ending ACL tear against Virginia Tech. Pittsburgh is 4-2 against the spread so far this season, and the game total has stayed under in four of its six games.
With Heintschel out, Holden Geriner has stepped in under center. He started last week against North Carolina, completing 27 of 44 pass attempts for 219 yards while throwing two second-half interceptions. Geriner, a transfer from Texas State who previously played at Auburn, has talent around him, but Pittsburgh will need him to take better care of the football.
Damon Ferguson Jr. will be looking to build on his 319 rushing yards and three touchdowns this season. La’Vell Wright has also been a productive backfield option, while Ja’Kyrian Turner remains involved in the rushing attack. Cataurus Hicks has emerged as a key receiving option with 365 yards through the air, while Bryce Yates, Carson Kent and Censere Lee have also played notable roles in the passing game.
But even with the quarterback change, this Pittsburgh team has always been on the defensive side of the ball. Pat Narduzzi’s squad limits opponents to just 14.7 points per game, ranking 15th among the 138 qualifying D1 teams. The Panthers have been particularly stout against the run, allowing just 49.7 rushing yards per game. They have also held four of their first six opponents to 14 points or fewer.
Boston College Eagles
The Boston College Eagles enter this matchup at 2-3 and are still searching for their first conference win. They come off consecutive losses to Virginia Tech and SMU, but a bye week will help them regroup. Boston College is 3-2 against the spread this season, and they’ve gone under the game total in every game so far.
Offensive production has been the root of the issues for Bill O’Brien’s squad. The Eagles average just 19 points per game, ranking 121st out of 138 D1 teams. They’ve been limited to 16 points or fewer in three of their five games. Turnovers have been an issue, with Boston College averaging 1.6 turnovers per game. Defensively, they limit teams to 23.4 points per game and just 316.2 total yards.
Quarterback Mason McKenzie has completed 57.9% of his passes for 967 yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions. He has also threatened on the ground, leading the team with 437 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Running back Evan Dickens adds another backfield option, with 236 rushing yards and three touchdowns. No receiver has consistently dominated the passing game, although Javarius Green, Dawson Pough and Johnathan Montague have each recorded at least 150 receiving yards. Against a Pittsburgh defense that has been especially effective at stopping the run, the Eagles will need to generate offense without putting themselves in difficult passing situations.
Pittsburgh vs. Boston College Pick
Mason Heintschel’s injury dampens Pittsburgh’s season outlook, which had been shaping up to be promising. However, this matchup still gives the Panthers a good chance to beat a Boston College team that has struggled offensively. The Eagles will see this as a chance to get their season back on track, especially with a bye week and home-field advantage.
While I lean toward Pittsburgh finding enough production to win, I am backing the game total to stay under 43.5 points. The game total has stayed under in all five of Boston College’s games this year, largely because of their offense. The Eagles’ passing game has been largely nonexistent, and Pittsburgh’s defense makes you work for every yard. Boston College will keep trying to establish the run, but it won’t come easy. Expect pedestrian play calls from the Eagles and little chance for big plays.
On the other side of the ball, Holden Geriner didn’t exactly inspire confidence in his ability to keep the offense on track in his first start. The Panthers threw him 44 times, and he recorded a respectable 219 passing yards, but two interceptions were costly. Boston College has forced 1.2 interceptions and 1.6 total turnovers per game this season, so that will be a concern.
Ultimately, I am buckling up for sloppy football and points that will be hard to come by on both sides. 43.5 points is a low game total, but for good reason given the context of these teams. Don’t expect either side to have a clear path to 20+ points; both teams should lean on low-creativity offenses. Count on the 43.5-point total to be too lofty in a sloppy, physical ACC game.
