Tennessee defensive tackle Xavier Gilliam ended Arkansas’s opening possession by stripping the quarterback and recovering the fumble himself. Arkansas had reached the Volunteers’ 19. Alabama arrives at Neyland Stadium Saturday for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff with a doubtful starting center and a quarterback who just took four sacks against Georgia. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Tennessee vs. Alabama prediction, preview
Keelon Russell’s last sack drove Alabama out of field-goal range with the Tide trailing by three. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said Russell knew his outlet against pressure. He still held the ball. Tennessee’s new defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles, can exploit that hesitation with a unit that has collected 25 sacks through six games. If center Racin Delgatty cannot play, Mal Waldrep Jr. makes his first start there, with a rivalry sellout complicating Alabama’s protection checks. Russell also loses leading receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams to injury.
When Alabama back Trae’shawn Brown broke a 58-yard run against Georgia, Russell needed only one more snap to throw a touchdown. Tennessee just allowed Arkansas to march 70 yards on five consecutive runs. Grubb should answer the Volunteers’ aggressive rush with counters for Brown. Receiver Lotzeir Brooks can also threaten over-the-top—he caught a 50-yard pass at Mississippi State—though Tennessee has allowed only 5.5 yards per pass attempt through six games. Alabama has finished 23 of 27 red-zone visits with touchdowns this season. Tennessee needs to wreck possessions before the Tide get that close.
Tennessee back DeSean Bishop should get his chances to break loose, too. Alabama loses nose tackle Terrance Green after Georgia ran for 157 second-half yards following his departure. Bishop has rushed for 358 yards over his last two games, and Alabama’s remaining interior linemen must close the lanes Georgia repeatedly pried open. His 59-yard run launched Tennessee’s winning drive at Arkansas. He can turn a backed-up possession into a scoring threat before Tennessee has to throw.
Alabama vs. Tennessee pick, best bet
Quarterback George MacIntyre must contribute more than handoffs. Expected to start again while original starter Faizon Brandon nurses a shoulder injury, he moved Tennessee 71 yards for their first touchdown at Arkansas with help from reserve running back Daune Morris. Two short completions gained 21 yards; Morris also ran for two first downs. Tight end DaSaahn Brame later caught a pass 19 yards downfield and ran another 49. Against an Alabama defense allowing 8.1 yards per pass attempt through six games, MacIntyre can challenge coverage farther downfield through Brame.
MacIntyre also threw two interceptions, the second under pressure on third-and-five. Alabama’s rush should spoil enough possessions to win, but Tennessee can force punts in return. Those stops should let coach Josh Heupel continue running Bishop instead of asking MacIntyre to throw them out of a deep deficit. I’ll take the full 7.5 with the Vols.
Best bet: Tennessee +7.5 (-108).
Projected score: Alabama 27, Tennessee 23.
Best Bet: Tennessee +7.5 (-110) at Alabama
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