Ohio State faces Indiana on Saturday 10/17/26 at 12pm ET in one of the biggest games of the college football regular season. The Buckeyes have settled in as a 3.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 50.5. Here’s my prediction and best bet for the matchup.
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| Spread | Ohio State -3.5 |
| Moneyline | Ohio State -180/Indiana +150 |
| Total | 50.5 |
| Prediction | Ohio State 27 – Indiana 20 |
| Best Bet | Ohio State -3 (-122) |
Ohio State vs. Indiana prediction
A week after getting Georgia and Alabama, we get another battle of national contenders with Ohio State going to Indiana. It’s a revenge spot for the Buckeyes, after coming up just short in the Big Ten title game against the Hoosiers back in December. While Curt Cignetti carries the coaching advantage in the matchup, Ryan Day takes these things personally. He’ll have his squad ready for this one, many of the players returning from last year and looking to avenge the loss as well.
Indiana is 6-0 on the season, now riding an insane 22-game winning streak. That said, this team is a clear cut below the roster that won the National Championship last season. Cignetti is a coach that likes to run up scores and cover, and even so, the Hoosiers are just 1-5 ATS this season, with the cover coming against a Rutgers team that lost as a 29-point favorite in Week 1.
Indiana has faced two quality opponents and easily could’ve lost to either of them. Northwestern came into Bloomington an underdog of 20-plus points for a Friday night game and lost by just six points. Then last week, Indiana trailed 17-6 in the fourth quarter at Nebraska. Two explosive pass plays to Nick Marsh wound up just pulling out the 20-17 victory to a seemingly cursed program that’s now lost 31 straight games to ranked opponents.
The Hoosiers are very good, but no longer bulletproof. Northwestern and Nebraska didn’t have quite enough firepower to seal the deal, but Ohio State absolutely does. The Buckeyes are buttoned up on the defensive side of the ball. If they can build a lead like the Cornhuskers did, the defense won’t allow those big plays for another Indiana comeback. Josh Hoover has fixed his turnover problem under Cignetti, and is yet to throw an interception after tossing 33 in three years at TCU. When he’s sped up against the Ohio State defense, we’ll see if he reverts back to being sloppy with the ball.
I do expect explosive plays from the Buckeyes on the offensive side of the ball. The X-factor is obviously Jeremiah Smith, who is running away in the Heisman odds. He’s been unstoppable so far, approaching 1,000 yards with 11 touchdowns. Indiana will have something schemed up for him, but a couple monster plays seem inevitable at this point. In the two ranked games Ohio State has played, both on the road, Smith finished with stat lines of 8-164-1 at Texas and 11-206-2 at Iowa. In a 13-10 defensive battle against IU in the conference championship, Smith still ripped off eight grabs for 144 yards.
The Hoosiers have been flirting with a loss, and this just feels like the spot they’re destined to take it. Ohio State will be highly motivated, has the more talented roster, and has played in tough road environments. The heartbreaking loss at Texas after dominating for three quarters should be a strength for the Buckeyes moving forward to keep their foot on the gas.
I laid a juiced -3 with Ohio State, but if that line isn’t available when you’re placing the bet, you can still split it up. Just play half the bet on -3.5 and half on the ALT -2.5 which are both always available on DraftKings.
Ohio State vs. Indiana best bet
CFB Best Bet: Ohio State -3 (-122)
For all of my college football best bets this week, check out my CFB cheat sheet on DraftKings Network.
