A dramatic 3-2 win on Thursday has given the Guardians a 2-1 advantage in the ALCS. Now, Cleveland will attempt to secure a second straight win in front of its home fans. The visiting Rays are motivated as well, eager to avoid a 3-1 series deficit. All-Star Nick Martinez is on the mound for Tampa Bay, hoping to silence a pesky group of Guards hitters. Which players will step up tonight in this massive October showdown?
The Rays are favorites (-112) over the Guardians on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s break down two player props worth consideration ahead of Friday’s Game 4 matchup.
Rays vs. Guardians Best Prop Bets Today for Friday 10/16/26
Nick Martinez under 5.5 Hits + Walks + ER Allowed (-137)
Tampa Bay’s season might come down to Martinez’s performance this evening. Fortunately for the Rays, their veteran hurler has been up to the task all season. Through 180.0 innings of work (31 starts), he’s notched a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 109 strikeouts (5.5 K/9). That includes an MLB-best 1.3 BB/9 ratio. Martinez’s strong regular season was followed up by a 3.2-inning, two-run showing in Game 3 of the ALDS vs. New York. The 36-year-old is a road warrior, notching a 2.38 ERA over 16 appearances away from home. That bodes well for his chances this evening at a hostile Progressive Field.
This Guardians club is built on pitching and defense. At the plate, they’re mediocre at best. Cleveland averaged 4.19 runs per game during the regular season, seventh-fewest in the majors. To boot, the AL Central winners have recorded the league’s seventh-lowest OPS against right-handed pitching (.706). During two meetings against the Guardians in 2026 (13.0 innings), Martinez has yet to allow a run. In both starts, he put on exactly four base runners. Keep in mind, Rays manager Kevin Cash will have a quicker hook than usual in this pivotal Game 4. With or without a lengthy stay on the mound, Martinez should hold his own tonight.
Travis Bazzana 1+ Hit (-139)
As previously mentioned, Martinez is a difficult assignment for these Guardians hitters. However, that’s reflected in the odds this evening. If anyone on this club makes sense to back for a simple base hit prop, it’s Travis Bazzana. It’s been a solid rookie campaign for the Australian, posting a .245/.335/.408 slash line during the regular season. However, he’s only batting .148 during eight playoff games. It doesn’t come as a massive surprise when looking over the advanced metrics. Cleveland’s second baseman sits within the 21st percentile or lower in xwOBA (.299), xBA (.224) and xSLG (.347).
Subpar postseason numbers, while disappointing, have kept the youngster’s line at a reasonable price. Bazzana has a hit in two of three games during the ALCS, so there’s reason to believe he’s starting to turn things around. Even more important, the lefty is slashing .274/.361/.485 this season against right-handed pitching. When Martinez faced the Guardians back in July, Bazzana smacked a single to center field. That’s all bettors will need to cash in on this player prop tonight.
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