The defending champion Seattle Seahawks began their defense in the same way that enabled them to hoist the Lombardi trophy: smothering defense and Jaxon Smith-Njigba to open the season with two straight victories. And those were with Drew Lock under center. New England could muster only 10 points while Arizona was overmatched and held to a lone touchdown.
Since then, though, Seattle has given up 33, 23 and 32 points and lost two of three games. Sam Darnold started all three contests. Coincidence? Well, Darnold threw five interceptions over that span and failed to top 200 yards in the last two contests. That Smith-Njigba guy? All he’s done is garner 11, 11 and 14 targets, hauling in eight, nine and 10 for 122, 155, 128 yards and six total touchdowns. JSN leads the NFL with 583 yards and seven touchdowns.
Defensively, no team has passed for more than 176 yards against Seattle while only two opponents have rushed for over 100 yards. It’s really been the turnovers and short fields provided by the offense that have led to the uncharacteristic flurry of points.
Seattle is fourth in pressure rate despite blitzing at the 10th-lowest rate. The 14 sacks are fifth-most while the 11 turnovers are the most in the NFL, with a league-leading seven interceptions. The 5.66 expected points by the pass defense is second-best while the 754 passing yards allowed are the fewest. The 76 passer rating is the second-lowest while the 5.5 yards per attempt are the fewest.
The rush defense has been eighth-best with 11.43 expected points. The 3.7 yards per attempt allowed is the fifth-lowest and the 100.4 yards per game are the 11th-lowest. Only two rushing touchdowns have been allowed, the second-fewest. The 79.4 passer rating is sixth-lowest.
The Denver pass defense has been just as good as Seattle’s, ranking third in expected points with 1.62. The 57.6 completion percentage is the third-lowest while the unit has racked up five interceptions, the third-most. The secondary has been ravaged by injuries, though, as cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss missed last week and safety Talanoa Hufanga won’t play for at least a few weeks. That’s a big Ruh-Roh having to deal with JSN this week.
As good as the Broncos pass defense has been, the rush defense has been horrendous. The -9.71 expected points are the fifth-worst. The unit has allowed 4.7 yards per carry and 145.2 yards per game, the fourth-most. The 726 total yards are the third-most while five rushing touchdowns have been punched in.
Offensively, Sean Payton took over play-calling duties from Davis Webb after four games. The Broncos rank 25th in passing yards, 22nd in passing touchdowns and 23rd in net yards per attempt. On the ground, 25th in yards, 22nd in touchdowns and 27th in yards per attempt. And all this with the third-best offensive line per PFF.
Bo Nix is completing only 59.9% of his passes and averaging 5.8 yards per attempt. For perspective, Lamar Jackson leads the league at 10.1 yards per attempt while Cooper Rush is at 5.9. Only Jacoby Brissett has a lower number at 5.6. Gross.
Although 30% of the games have been played, it’s still relatively early in the season, and the Super Bowl odds for both teams have not changed from the preseason. +1100 for Seattle and +2000 for Denver. Both teams are talented and well-coached. This should be a competitive affair.
Seattle enters as a 2.5-point road favorite with -142 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Denver is a +120 underdog, with the game total set at O/U 40.5 points.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SEA at DEN)
Captain’s Picks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($17,400 CP): JSN is the straw that stirs the Seahawks offense, the glue that binds the playbook together, the heart that pumps blood to his teammates, the cornerstone upon which the whole operation relies on. If the Broncos were healthy in the secondary, then I’d think for a second of fading him before I grabbed my right hand with my left and slapped my right cheek. Brian Fleury does a masterful job of moving JSN all over the formation to get him good matchups and easy releases off the line of scrimmage. Sam Darnold looks his way like a puppy underneath the table at dinner time, so JSN is going to get fed and provide plenty of fantasy goodies.
UTIL Plays
Emanuel Wilson ($9,400): Wilson has received 20 and 21 carries over the last two contests. He’s only racked up 61 and 81 yards, but scored twice while hauling in five of six targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. He received all six running back red zone opportunities over the last two weeks and should have plenty of chances against a suspect Broncos run defense.
JK Dobbins ($8,400): Dobbins rushed 18 times for 68 yards last week with a touchdown. I’d imagine that Sean Payton will want to ground and pound for as long as he can behind the third-ranked offensive line per PFF to limit the effects of the Seahawks pass rush. Dobbins received five of six red zone running back opportunities last week and should garner most of the money touches in this one.
Evan Engram ($4,000): Seattle has defended tight ends well this season, so the matchup isn’t great, but the Seahawks are death to wide receivers. With Bo Nix a dink-and-dunk specialist, Engram should get peppered with targets in this one. Granted, he only received four last week and the season-high is five, so peppered is relative, but it wouldn’t surprise if he garners more than five in this one.
Fades
Jaylen Waddle ($9,000): Waddle was supposed to be the alpha to take this offense to the next level. Nope. He’s garnered 10 targets just once and put up double-digit FPTS twice. Seattle has allowed the third-fewest FPTS to wide receivers this season. Uh, yeah.
Outcome
I think the Broncos defense will play spirited while the offense is efficient. I’m not expecting a ton of points from either side, though, especially since I think Sam Darnold takes care of the ball in this one. Seattle hasn’t lost back-to-back games since December of 2024.
