Brayden Munroe tore through Jacksonville State for 159 receiving yards last Wednesday, yet Kennesaw State still managed to squander a nine-point lead. Jerry Mack takes the defending CUSA champions to Plaster Stadium at 1–4 after that 27–26 loss. Missouri State has stumbled to the same record under first-year coach Casey Woods, who is still choosing between two quarterbacks. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Missouri State Bears and the Kennesaw State Owls.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Missouri State vs. Kennesaw State prediction, preview
Rickie Collins ought to enjoy running at linebackers who repeatedly let Brock Glenn escape on third down last week. Collins carried for 61 yards against Jacksonville State, including a two-yard touchdown. If Missouri State widens their front to contain him, Mack ought to send Boogie Woods through the middle. The Bears just surrendered 233 rushing yards to WKU, whose last touchdown drive needed four runs to cover 78 yards.
Bring a safety down to tackle those runners, and Munroe can threaten over the top. Three of his catches last week covered more than 25 yards, and Collins attempted 34 passes while taking only one sack. Missouri State has mustered six sacks through five games. An extra rusher could force quicker throws; Mack can answer with shorter routes underneath safeties preoccupied with Munroe. First, though, his blockers have to wait for the snap: consecutive false starts turned third-and-eight into third-and-18 last week. For all that improvement through the air, the Owls committed 15 penalties and missed an extra point. Mack has plenty to straighten out before asking them to protect a lead in Springfield.
Henry Belin IV put some life into Missouri State when he relieved Skyler Locklear at WKU. The Duke transfer entered during a 95-yard march and capped it with a 36-yard touchdown to Isaiah Myers, cutting the deficit to eight. I’d go back to Myers downfield. Jacksonville State’s Deondre Johnson caught passes for 39, 35 and 22 yards against the Owls, who managed only one sack. Belin shares the starting designation with Locklear; either can hurt Kennesaw on the ground, too. Locklear broke a 48-yard run at WKU, while Belin converted third-and-one with an 11-yard gain.
Kennesaw State vs. Missouri State pick, best bet
Breezy Dubar and Ramone Green have to spare those quarterbacks some long passing downs. They scraped together 47 yards on 12 carries at WKU; now they meet Baron Hopson and Tywon Christopher, whose defense held Jacksonville State to 74 net rushing yards. With less need for a safety near the line, Kennesaw can give their corners help over Myers. Mark Cala ought to call early throws to Jmariyae Robinson, though the Bears need more from them: one lost four yards inside WKU’s 20 and helped force a field goal. A ruinous 16-yard sack later spoiled another Belin possession.
With Myers attacking downfield, I’m willing to lay three and stop there. Near the goal line, I trust Mack to use Collins’ legs against the same defenders who let Glenn and Ajay Allen run into the end zone last week.
Best bet: Kennesaw State -3 (-108).
Projected score: Kennesaw State 27, Missouri State 23.
Best Bet: Kennesaw Sate -3 (-110) at Missouri State
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